Title: Passenger Car Ownership Estimation toward 2030 in Japan -BAU Scenario with Socio-Economic Factors-
Abstract: The estimation of passenger car ownership is a crucial estimation for auto-related production and for analysis of many transportation-related policies such as Green House Gas (GHG), emissions, and energy consumption policies. Previous studies of car ownership estimation have generally focused on accurate adherence to track record, statistical signification, or model structure; however, there are problems in focusing on all these factors together. A variation in assumptions can produce different forecast results. Further, uncertainties in forecasting processes were enormous, and this made final results unreliable. It is important for these previous studies with economic variables to have accurate results of passenger car ownership with regard to various estimation factors such as emission levels, CO2, and car parts production. For production estimation and for policy analysis, it is necessary to draw a car ownership pattern as a baseline scenario the Business as Usual. The purpose of our passenger car ownership estimation model with Business as Usual scenario ―JARI BAU Model―. JARI BAU Model is to estimate passenger car ownership by resolving these difficulties. Our passenger car ownership estimation model with JARI BAU Model for demand function is intended to provide information on total passenger car ownership in Japan from present time until year 2030. This paper is an attempt at methodological amelioration by conducting a fairly comprehensive literature survey on estimation models of passenger car ownership. The estimated results will be strictly examined by t-value, and regression coefficients will be estimated at 1% significance level. The accuracy of estimated result will be compared to statistical record. This paper is unique in that it attempts to estimate car ownership solely on basis of socioeconomic trends, without including physical characteristics of automobiles such as fuel economy, vehicle age, or infrastructure development. Considering an aging society with a declining birth rate and an increasing governmental debt, population may be polarized into high- and low-income groups. The polarization of income distribution affects polarization of car ownership. We assume that driver's license holders in high-income group can own their vehicles. The BAU model estimates 60.09 million passenger vehicles in 2010 and 61.59 million in 2030. The estimation model improves both accuracy and statistical estimation. From viewpoint of accuracy, deviation is between -4% and +8% as compared with actual record. The estimated t-values are significant for entire data set and limited data set (the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990-2002).
Publication Year: 2007
Publication Date: 2007-03-17
Language: en
Type: preprint
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Cited By Count: 4
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