Abstract: The aim of this paper is to forecast the level of car ownership in Delhi, the capital city of India up to the year 2021. The in-sample forecasting is based on estimation of logistic and Gompertz distributions using annual data of car ownership from the year 1965-66 to 2000-2001 under three alternative saturation levels viz. 25, 33 and 50 cars per 100 persons, the saturation levels being evolved from household size. It is observed that, by the year 2020-21, the car ownership level will touch the mark of 14 and 17 cars per 100 persons in Delhi under the saturation levels 25 and 50 respectively. This study will be useful for planners, policy makers and researchers in the area of transport, energy and road for realistic view of the subject and for the planning of appropriate strategy.
Publication Year: 2010
Publication Date: 2010-01-01
Language: en
Type: article
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Cited By Count: 3
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