Title: A PANEL ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN CAR OWNERSHIP AND MODE USE ---ANALYSES OF PANEL DATA, PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROUND TABLE CONFERENCE ON THE LONGITUDINAL TRAVEL STUDY, THE HAGUE, MAY 14-15, 1987
Abstract: The impact of change in car ownership on household mobility is examined in this study using observations from the first three waves of the Dutch national mobility panel survey. The major findings of the statistical analysis can be summarized as: (a) car ownership is strongly associated with mode usage. However, it has no influence on weekly person trip generation by household members; and (b) an increase in car ownership leads to an increase in car use, which in turn leads to a decrease in transit use. Importantly, observed changes in mode use cannot be adequately explained by assuming the reversed causality, i.e., a change in transit use influences car use. The second finding, obtained from an analysis of causal relationship underlying changes in car ownership and mode usage, leads to the following conjecture: -if the trend of increasing household car ownership continues, it will result in further increase in car use. This increase in car use may not be suppressed by improving public transit. In the long-run, it is possible that the problems arising from excessive automotive traffic worsen and mandate that urban traffic demand be controlled. In that event, car use may be more effectively controlled in the long-run by adopting policies to control car ownership rather than car use itself. In addition, it is recommended that the emerging behavioral analyses of car ownership should continue and be expanded to determine the long term trends in car ownership and the impact of public transit service levels on car ownership in the netherlands.(a) for the covering abstract of the conference see IRRD 818179.
Publication Year: 1988
Publication Date: 1988-01-01
Language: en
Type: article
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