Get quick answers to your questions about the article from our AI researcher chatbot
{'id': 'https://openalex.org/W1492621287', 'doi': None, 'title': 'The Clouded Crystal Ball', 'display_name': 'The Clouded Crystal Ball', 'publication_year': 1974, 'publication_date': '1974-01-01', 'ids': {'openalex': 'https://openalex.org/W1492621287', 'mag': '1492621287'}, 'language': 'en', 'primary_location': {'is_oa': False, 'landing_page_url': 'https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aecrev/v64y1974i2p121-24.html', 'pdf_url': None, 'source': {'id': 'https://openalex.org/S23254222', 'display_name': 'American Economic Review', 'issn_l': '0002-8282', 'issn': ['0002-8282', '1944-7981'], 'is_oa': False, 'is_in_doaj': False, 'is_indexed_in_scopus': True, 'is_core': True, 'host_organization': 'https://openalex.org/P4310315912', 'host_organization_name': 'American Economic Association', 'host_organization_lineage': ['https://openalex.org/P4310315912'], 'host_organization_lineage_names': ['American Economic Association'], 'type': 'journal'}, 'license': None, 'license_id': None, 'version': 'submittedVersion', 'is_accepted': False, 'is_published': False}, 'type': 'article', 'type_crossref': 'posted-content', 'indexed_in': [], 'open_access': {'is_oa': False, 'oa_status': 'closed', 'oa_url': None, 'any_repository_has_fulltext': False}, 'authorships': [{'author_position': 'first', 'author': {'id': 'https://openalex.org/A5075227591', 'display_name': 'Robert L. Heilbroner', 'orcid': None}, 'institutions': [], 'countries': [], 'is_corresponding': True, 'raw_author_name': 'Robert L Heilbroner', 'raw_affiliation_strings': [], 'affiliations': []}], 'institution_assertions': [], 'countries_distinct_count': 0, 'institutions_distinct_count': 0, 'corresponding_author_ids': ['https://openalex.org/A5075227591'], 'corresponding_institution_ids': [], 'apc_list': None, 'apc_paid': None, 'fwci': 0.0, 'has_fulltext': False, 'cited_by_count': 4, 'citation_normalized_percentile': {'value': 0.705882, 'is_in_top_1_percent': False, 'is_in_top_10_percent': False}, 'cited_by_percentile_year': {'min': 72, 'max': 75}, 'biblio': {'volume': '64', 'issue': '2', 'first_page': '121', 'last_page': '124'}, 'is_retracted': False, 'is_paratext': False, 'primary_topic': {'id': 'https://openalex.org/T11742', 'display_name': 'Economic Theory and Policy', 'score': 0.0721, 'subfield': {'id': 'https://openalex.org/subfields/2000', 'display_name': 'General Economics, Econometrics and Finance'}, 'field': {'id': 'https://openalex.org/fields/20', 'display_name': 'Economics, Econometrics and Finance'}, 'domain': {'id': 'https://openalex.org/domains/2', 'display_name': 'Social Sciences'}}, 'topics': [{'id': 'https://openalex.org/T11742', 'display_name': 'Economic Theory and Policy', 'score': 0.0721, 'subfield': {'id': 'https://openalex.org/subfields/2000', 'display_name': 'General Economics, Econometrics and Finance'}, 'field': {'id': 'https://openalex.org/fields/20', 'display_name': 'Economics, Econometrics and Finance'}, 'domain': {'id': 'https://openalex.org/domains/2', 'display_name': 'Social Sciences'}}, {'id': 'https://openalex.org/T10503', 'display_name': 'Global Financial Crisis and Policies', 'score': 0.0687, 'subfield': {'id': 'https://openalex.org/subfields/2003', 'display_name': 'Finance'}, 'field': {'id': 'https://openalex.org/fields/20', 'display_name': 'Economics, Econometrics and Finance'}, 'domain': {'id': 'https://openalex.org/domains/2', 'display_name': 'Social Sciences'}}, {'id': 'https://openalex.org/T13901', 'display_name': 'State Capitalism and Financial Governance', 'score': 0.0664, 'subfield': {'id': 'https://openalex.org/subfields/1408', 'display_name': 'Strategy and Management'}, 'field': {'id': 'https://openalex.org/fields/14', 'display_name': 'Business, Management and Accounting'}, 'domain': {'id': 'https://openalex.org/domains/2', 'display_name': 'Social Sciences'}}], 'keywords': [{'id': 'https://openalex.org/keywords/economic-problem', 'display_name': 'Economic problem', 'score': 0.45448965}, {'id': 'https://openalex.org/keywords/futures-studies', 'display_name': 'Futures studies', 'score': 0.43879578}, {'id': 'https://openalex.org/keywords/liberian-dollar', 'display_name': 'Liberian dollar', 'score': 0.43099076}], 'concepts': [{'id': 'https://openalex.org/C162324750', 'wikidata': 'https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134', 'display_name': 'Economics', 'level': 0, 'score': 0.563023}, {'id': 'https://openalex.org/C94625758', 'wikidata': 'https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7163', 'display_name': 'Politics', 'level': 2, 'score': 0.47349247}, {'id': 'https://openalex.org/C196179229', 'wikidata': 'https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3539169', 'display_name': 'Economic problem', 'level': 2, 'score': 0.45448965}, {'id': 'https://openalex.org/C158016649', 'wikidata': 'https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q161726', 'display_name': 'Multinational corporation', 'level': 2, 'score': 0.4538036}, {'id': 'https://openalex.org/C64848388', 'wikidata': 'https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188867', 'display_name': 'Futures studies', 'level': 2, 'score': 0.43879578}, {'id': 'https://openalex.org/C109168655', 'wikidata': 'https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q242988', 'display_name': 'Liberian dollar', 'level': 2, 'score': 0.43099076}, {'id': 'https://openalex.org/C195742910', 'wikidata': 'https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q176494', 'display_name': 'Recession', 'level': 2, 'score': 0.41544208}, {'id': 'https://openalex.org/C190253527', 'wikidata': 'https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q295354', 'display_name': 'Law and economics', 'level': 1, 'score': 0.36132228}, {'id': 'https://openalex.org/C138921699', 'wikidata': 'https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q47555', 'display_name': 'Political economy', 'level': 1, 'score': 0.32923165}, {'id': 'https://openalex.org/C133425853', 'wikidata': 'https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q60571', 'display_name': 'Neoclassical economics', 'level': 1, 'score': 0.32531226}, {'id': 'https://openalex.org/C199539241', 'wikidata': 'https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7748', 'display_name': 'Law', 'level': 1, 'score': 0.29611132}, {'id': 'https://openalex.org/C17744445', 'wikidata': 'https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442', 'display_name': 'Political science', 'level': 0, 'score': 0.28438595}, {'id': 'https://openalex.org/C34447519', 'wikidata': 'https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q179522', 'display_name': 'Market economy', 'level': 1, 'score': 0.25656414}, {'id': 'https://openalex.org/C165556158', 'wikidata': 'https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q83937', 'display_name': 'Keynesian economics', 'level': 1, 'score': 0.18087515}, {'id': 'https://openalex.org/C10138342', 'wikidata': 'https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q43015', 'display_name': 'Finance', 'level': 1, 'score': 0.0}, {'id': 'https://openalex.org/C154945302', 'wikidata': 'https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660', 'display_name': 'Artificial intelligence', 'level': 1, 'score': 0.0}, {'id': 'https://openalex.org/C41008148', 'wikidata': 'https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198', 'display_name': 'Computer science', 'level': 0, 'score': 0.0}], 'mesh': [], 'locations_count': 1, 'locations': [{'is_oa': False, 'landing_page_url': 'https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aecrev/v64y1974i2p121-24.html', 'pdf_url': None, 'source': {'id': 'https://openalex.org/S23254222', 'display_name': 'American Economic Review', 'issn_l': '0002-8282', 'issn': ['0002-8282', '1944-7981'], 'is_oa': False, 'is_in_doaj': False, 'is_indexed_in_scopus': True, 'is_core': True, 'host_organization': 'https://openalex.org/P4310315912', 'host_organization_name': 'American Economic Association', 'host_organization_lineage': ['https://openalex.org/P4310315912'], 'host_organization_lineage_names': ['American Economic Association'], 'type': 'journal'}, 'license': None, 'license_id': None, 'version': 'submittedVersion', 'is_accepted': False, 'is_published': False}], 'best_oa_location': None, 'sustainable_development_goals': [{'id': 'https://metadata.un.org/sdg/8', 'score': 0.67, 'display_name': 'Decent work and economic growth'}], 'grants': [], 'datasets': [], 'versions': [], 'referenced_works_count': 0, 'referenced_works': [], 'related_works': ['https://openalex.org/W95469038', 'https://openalex.org/W753690756', 'https://openalex.org/W328460317', 'https://openalex.org/W3121776550', 'https://openalex.org/W30978334', 'https://openalex.org/W304621486', 'https://openalex.org/W2756558098', 'https://openalex.org/W2506796743', 'https://openalex.org/W2494930216', 'https://openalex.org/W2492402596', 'https://openalex.org/W2325621709', 'https://openalex.org/W2318651191', 'https://openalex.org/W2318134860', 'https://openalex.org/W2315738421', 'https://openalex.org/W2220267727', 'https://openalex.org/W2182036976', 'https://openalex.org/W2139257307', 'https://openalex.org/W2072169529', 'https://openalex.org/W2042651557', 'https://openalex.org/W189760968'], 'abstract_inverted_index': {'I': [0, 30, 35, 49, 210, 222, 225, 344, 378, 391, 410, 432, 451], 'shall': [1], 'begin': [2], 'this': [3, 382, 461], 'brief': [4], 'discussion': [5], 'of': [6, 10, 23, 27, 42, 51, 57, 66, 75, 79, 108, 119, 125, 141, 148, 166, 197, 207, 232, 246, 254, 284, 298, 311, 338, 353, 357, 414, 418, 444, 463], 'the': [7, 11, 24, 28, 38, 43, 55, 63, 68, 72, 77, 80, 95, 103, 106, 109, 117, 123, 139, 146, 149, 167, 203, 216, 219, 244, 252, 255, 285, 296, 299, 303, 312, 333, 346, 351, 358, 387, 419, 429, 438, 440, 442, 446, 458], 'policy': [8, 416], 'issues': [9, 26, 417], "1970's": [12], 'by': [13, 138, 318], 'taking': [14], 'a': [15, 83, 113, 229, 259, 322, 397], 'look': [16], 'backward,': [17], 'rather': [18, 174, 184], 'than': [19, 175, 185], 'forward,': [20], 'reviewing': [21], 'some': [22], 'major': [25], 'future': [164], 'should': [31], 'have': [32, 53, 227, 292, 411, 433], 'raised': [33], 'were': [34, 265, 348], 'speaking': [36], 'in': [37, 98, 202, 218, 235, 332, 370, 400, 423], 'early': [39, 44, 220], "1950's": [40, 347], 'instead': [41], "1970's.": [45], 'With': [46], 'perfect': [47], 'foresight,': [48], 'would,': [50], 'course,': [52], 'mentioned': [54, 228], 'issue': [56], 'economic': [58, 121, 126, 143, 189, 324, 330], 'growth,': [59, 436], 'clearly': [60], 'visible': [61], 'as': [62, 82, 112, 275, 277, 469], 'central': [64], 'thrust': [65], 'all': [67, 162, 182, 319], 'advanced': [69], 'industrial': [70], 'societies;': [71], 'recalcitrant': [73], 'problem': [74, 124, 147, 356], 'inflation;': [76], 'constraint': [78], 'environment': [81], 'wholly': [84], 'new': [85, 114], 'and': [86, 92, 145, 151, 192, 404], 'important': [87], 'element': [88], 'for': [89, 116, 476], 'both': [90], 'micro': [91], 'macro': [93], 'policy;': [94], 'difficulties': [96], 'implicit': [97], "Japan's": [99], 'remarkable': [100], 'reentry': [101], 'into': [102], 'world': [104], 'economy;': [105], 'emergence': [107], 'multinational': [110, 313], 'corporation': [111], 'agency': [115], 'conduct': [118], 'international': [120, 447], 'relationships;': [122], 'development,': [127, 445], 'stubbornly': [128], 'resisting': [129], 'attempts': [130], 'to': [131, 153, 161, 320, 341, 368, 385, 389, 395, 454, 467], 'move': [132], 'traditional': [133], 'societies': [134], 'off': [135], 'dead': [136], 'center': [137], 'application': [140], 'standard': [142], 'nostrums;': [144], 'dollar': [150], 'what': [152], 'do': [154, 379], 'about': [155], 'it.': [156], 'Three': [157], 'aspects': [158], 'are': [159, 171, 181], 'common': [160], 'these': [163, 170, 198], 'problems': [165, 199, 431, 464], 'past.': [168], 'First,': [169], 'unmistakably': [172], 'economic,': [173], 'political': [176], 'or': [177, 187, 281, 372], 'sociological.': [178], 'Second,': [179], 'they': [180], 'deep-seated': [183], 'accidental': [186], 'superficial': [188], 'problems.': [190], 'Last,': [191], 'most': [193], 'important,': [194], 'every': [195], 'one': [196, 231, 308, 337], 'was': [200, 240, 258, 279, 316, 336, 363, 366], 'invisible': [201], "1950's.": [204], 'In': [205], 'point': [206], 'fact,': [208], 'had': [209, 309], 'really': [211], 'been': [212, 293], 'holding': [213], 'forth': [214], 'on': [215, 261, 457], 'outlook': [217], "1950's,": [221], 'doubt': [223], 'that': [224, 249, 270, 364], 'would': [226], 'single': [230], 'them.': [233], 'For': [234], 'those': [236], 'earlier': [237], 'years,': [238], 'it': [239, 271, 365], 'not': [241, 273, 302, 340, 380], 'growth': [242, 331], 'but': [243, 301], 'threat': [245], 'chronic': [247], 'recession': [248], 'still': [250], 'absorbed': [251], 'attention': [253], 'profession.': [256], 'Inflation': [257], 'matter': [260], 'which': [262], 'no': [263], 'sessions': [264], 'organized,': [266], 'because': [267], 'we': [268], 'knew': [269], 'could': [272], 'occur': [274], 'long': [276], 'unemployment': [278], '4': [280], '5': [282], 'percent': [283], 'labor': [286], 'force.': [287], 'The': [288, 326, 355], 'Sierra': [289], 'Club': [290], 'may': [291], 'exercised': [294], 'over': [295], 'deterioration': [297], 'environment,': [300, 439], 'American': [304], 'Economic': [305], 'Association.': [306], 'No': [307], 'heard': [310], 'corporation.': [314], 'Japan': [315], 'considered': [317], 'be': [321, 369, 468], 'hopeless': [323], 'invalid.': [325], 'prevailing': [327], 'attitude': [328], 'toward': [329], 'less-developed': [334], 'countries': [335], 'encouragement,': [339], 'say': [342], 'enthusiasm:': [343], 'believe': [345], 'officially': [349], 'dubbed': [350], 'Decade': [352], 'Development.': [354], 'dollar,': [359], 'you': [360], 'will': [361], 'remember,': [362], 'deemed': [367], 'more': [371], 'less': [373], 'permanent': [374], 'short': [375], 'supply.': [376], 'Now': [377], 'mention': [381], 'extraordinary': [383], 'myopia': [384], 'take': [386], 'profession': [388], 'task.': [390], 'raise': [392], 'it,': [393], 'rather,': [394], 'inject': [396], 'cautionary': [398], 'note': [399], 'making': [401], 'our': [402], 'projections': [403], 'predictions': [405], 'today.': [406], 'Like': [407], 'everyone': [408], 'else,': [409], 'my': [412], 'list': [413, 462], 'expected': [415], "1970's-a": [420], 'surprise-free': [421], 'list,': [422], 'Herman': [424], "Kahn's": [425], 'terminology.': [426], 'It': [427], 'includes': [428], 'very': [430], 'just': [434], 'enumerated:': [435], 'inflation,': [437], 'multinationals,': [441], 'failure': [443], 'monetary': [448], 'situation.': [449], 'But': [450], 'am': [452], 'moved': [453], 'ask,': [455], 'reflecting': [456], 'past,': [459], 'whether': [460], 'is': [465], 'likely': [466], 'miscon*': [470], 'Norman': [471], 'Thomas': [472], 'Professor,': [473], 'New': [474], 'School': [475], 'Social': [477], 'Research.': [478]}, 'cited_by_api_url': 'https://api.openalex.org/works?filter=cites:W1492621287', 'counts_by_year': [{'year': 2018, 'cited_by_count': 1}], 'updated_date': '2025-01-18T04:55:23.583172', 'created_date': '2016-06-24'}