Title: ESTIMATING THE DEMAND FOR INTERCITY TRAVEL: ECONOMIC-THEORETICAL PERSPECTIVES ON COMMON MODELS AND A NEW APPROACH TO THE ESTIMATION OF DEMAND RELATIONSHIPS
Abstract: This dissertation deals with the estimation of intercity travel demand. The purpose is to discuss the derivations and characteristics of existing models, to derive a demand model based on microeconomic theory and to estimate the parameters of the model in order to gain information on important characteristics of the transport system. The intercity travel demand model proposed in this study is based on the general assumption that travel demand can be derived from the demand for visits to other cities. As people living in different parts of a country experience different prices or generalised transport costs for visits to the cities, it is possible to estimate demand functions for visits to each city from the use of cross-sectional data, which is normally not possible for other utilities. From these demand functions, demand functions for separate transport relations can be derived. Necessary conditions concerning various demand elasticities are formulated and their consequences for the mathematical specification of the model are discussed. Of particular interest are those parts of the model that link together different levels. In order not to specify the cost function in advance, a Box-Cox formulation is used. The result is a demand model which determines the total number of trips made from each city, as well as the distribution among destinations and travel modes. A simplified version of the model, not including distribution among travel modes, is estimated with Swedish data for the period 1990-1994. Estimations are made for the total number of trips as well as separately for business trips and private trips. Elasticities found in the study lie between -0,3 (private trips) and -0,5 (business trips). (A)
Publication Year: 1998
Publication Date: 1998-01-01
Language: en
Type: article
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