Title: Study on Effects of Climate Changes on Surface Runoff Changes in Basin of the Urmia Lake
Abstract: Abstract:
Climate change is one of the most important problems in the present century. So assessing and prediction of future changes is important to mitigate climate change impacts on water resources, is very important for economics and socio-economic affairs. The purpose of this research is Effects of Climate Changes on Surface Runoff Changes under Scenario A1B, A2, B2 and B1 of HadCM3 general circulation models and IHACRES rainfall-runoff model in thiry time perioud (2011-2030, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099) using LARS-WG and SDSM downscaling model in the Urmia Lake Basin synoptic stations. According to the results of the Mann-Kendall and Sen's Slope Estimator was determined at selected stations in different parts of the basin there is no decreased and increase systematic in all parameters and most stations had not experienced a significant trend. According to the results of these test, the rainfall has been decreasing in all stations studied, that this decreasing trend is significant at 5% only in Tabriz station. The results of the evaluation of observed and simulation data using the LARS-WG and SDSM downscaling models Using statistical indexes showed that not difference between the simulated and the observed values on the critical error 0.5% and are acceptable Pearson correlation values between the simulated and observed data at a significance level of 0.1%. To ensure the accuracy of the calibration model, were used the measurement error included RMSE, MSE and MAE indices. The results show that the accuracyof the mode is various in stations and parameters study. So that both models has been a more accurate in simulation of temperature than precipitation And also in simulated of monthly precipitation, SDSM model Except the Saghez station on other stations have a more accurate than the LARS-WG model. In general, the results showed that the maximum and minimum temperatures will rise in future periods and average temperature of Basin will be increased between 0.55 to 3.15 ° C, But the results is different for precipitation. LARS-WG model showed a reduction in the rainfall amounts 11.94 percent in the basin but SDSM model is 5.62 percent increase in future periods than the base period. Evapotranspiration rates are based on two methods Hargreaves and Priestley Taylor show a significant increase than base period. Performance analysis of IHACRES rainfall-runoff model also showed good accuracy of the model to simulate the runoff changes in employed stations. The results the study of surface runoff changes showed that the long-term average of annual runoff is reduced in 2020s, 2050s and 2080s than the base period, respectively 5.4, 22.35 and 64.5 percent. So the issue of water shortage in this basin in the future will be more serious and the amount of surface runoff and flow distribution with respect to the expected climate change had changed completely.
Publication Year: 2015
Publication Date: 2015-01-01
Language: en
Type: dissertation
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