Title: Comprehensive estimation of the accident-based factors' impact on the large crowds-massing risk
Abstract: The present article is aimed at introducing the authors' improved method of comprehensive estimation of the accident-based factors' impact on the large crowds-massing risk.As an ever increasing threatening trend,disastrous accidents caused by large crowd-massing have become more and more frequent events in our society.Once the accident occurs,the consequence is often catastrophic,often resulting in large numbers of casualty and material loss.Such accidents taking place in public venue,though quite different with the industrial hazardous installations or in mining places,are usually full of randomness and even arouse the social unrest.Therefore,it is urgent to focus our attention and put more efforts on the ways to set rules and methods to control and reduce the potential risk-leading factors that are likely to trigger such accidents.This article tries to separate the generally-known crowd-massing risk factors in public venue into two main categories:the mental disturbance factor and physical disturbance factor and use the definition of integrated disturbance intensity as the symbol of sum of such factors.Through the investigation and analysis of the statistical data of such accidents,as fire,explosion,poisoning,construction failure and crowd trample,the results show that the factors illustrated above are in conformity with Lindberg-Levy theorem.According to the central limit theorem,integrated disturbance intensity can be described as an approximately normal distribution.Based on the study on the fire occurrence and the extended research discoveries over other factors,the probability density function for quantifying the integrated disturbance intensity via Liyapunov theorem and through the Fourier series,integrated disturbance intensity can be quantified by the linear combination of many cosine functions,and to some other statistical data,the article has also carried out the corresponding exemplified analyses.Finally,by means of the number of accidents of certain types,the suggested method can help to quantify the integrated disturbance intensity resulting from each kind of disturbance factor in peripheral environment,under the statistical average significance,which determines the nature of large-crowd massing risks.
Publication Year: 2007
Publication Date: 2007-01-01
Language: en
Type: article
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