Title: Russia’s Foreign Policy after the Presidential Elections: Prospects for Cooperation with the West
Abstract: On 7 May 2012, Vladimir Putin was sworn in for his third term as the president of Russian Federation. His victory two months earlier in the first ballot of the presidential elections with more than 60% of the votes was neither spectacular nor did he meet with any serious opposition for the presidential post. Although during the presidential electoral campaign there were some anti-governmental protests in Moscow and in other large Russian cities, his victory was convincing and the politician proved to enjoy actual popular support in the significant part of the country. One meaningful feature of Mr. Putin's election campaign image is that, unlike former President Dmitri Medvedev, he made no concessions, even in the rhetorical or symbolic sphere, to the opposition movement. For that reason, it would be rather unfounded to expect some serious changes in Russian foreign and domestic policies. Moreover, as Russian foreign policy for the past twelve years has been guided by the pursuit of an influential position in a multipolar world to balance the predominance of American influence, there is no reason to suspect that during a third term as president Putin will abandon this compass of his.However, there are some serious arguments indicating a potential change in Russian foreign policy. In the first place, one should bear in mind how deeply Russian politics are dependent on revenues from exporting gas and oil. During the first and second terms as president, Putin gained political voltage both from attempts to ally with the West his more assertive foreign policy towards the United States and the European Union. The profound influence of the oil price on Russia is also valid, if not mainly, for the domestic situation, which may evolve into tension between Russian authorities and an opposition supported by Western multi-governmental and non-governmental organisations. The main purpose of this article is to examine the prospects for cooperation between Russia and the West after Putin's victory in the presidential elections in March 2012. The beginning of the article deals with changes in the decision-making process in Russia, which the elections have brought. The actual analysis of Russia's relations with the West starts with the U.S, which remains the centrepiece in Moscow's foreign policy. Subsequently, the article deals with issues important in both U.S.-Russia and EU-Russia relations, such as the missile defence project or security problems in the Middle East. While describing the EU-Russia relations, the authors try to explain the stalemate between Brussels and Moscow by identifying key obstacles and irritants. The article also contains an analysis of Russia's relations with its key European partner, Germany, as well as with some other EU members. The article concludes with observations about the lack of a stable, long-term basis for Russia-West relations and changes to this situation that Russia's accession to the World Trade Organisation may bring.The Decision-Making Process in Russia's Foreign PolicyFor sure, the presidential victory of Vladimir Putin makes the foreign policy decision-making process in Russia more predictable and clear. The Russian president is formally responsible for the formulation of foreign policy and supervises the majority of state institutions dealing with Russia's external relations. The situation was complicated between 2008 and 2012 when Putin stepped down after eight years in the presidential post and became prime minister. At that time, foreign policy was in both President Dmitry Medvedev's and Prime Minister Putin's orbit of special interest. Their comparable international activity meant that-alongside the Presidential Administration and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA), which report directly to the head of state-the Government Executive Office became an important body in adopting decisions with respect to Russia's foreign policy. After the return of Putin to the presidential office, one may expect that the centre of the decision-making process in foreign policy would be located somewhere between the Presidential Administration, the MFA and the Security Council-all directly controlled by the president. …
Publication Year: 2012
Publication Date: 2012-07-01
Language: en
Type: article
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Cited By Count: 3
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