Title: Negotiating with Kremlin: Considerations for Future US Policy towards Russia
Abstract: [ILLUSTRATION OMITTED] US-Russia relations today are more strained and more confrontational than at any time since the end of the Cold War. For the first time since the end of World War II, a European country has annexed territory of a neighbor. Emboldened by the relative ease of Crimea's annexation, Vladimir Putin then went a step further and intervened in eastern Ukraine in an attempt to wrestle more territory away from Kiev's control. Inside Russia, Putin has increased his autocratic grip, in part by blaming the United States for fomenting revolution against his regime. Once again, like the darkest days of the Cold War, Russian stated-controlled media outlets portray the United States as Russia's number one enemy intent on weakening, if not even dismembering, Russia. According to the Kremlin's media, we are also responsible for many of the evils in other countries including the tragic civil wars in Syria and Libya and the Nazis who came to power in Kiev. The Obama administration's response to Russia's actions, in partnership with American allies in Europe, has been qualitatively different than any other period in the post-Cold War era. Dozens of Russian officials and companies are now sanctioned. Even during the most difficult periods of the Cold War, the chief of staff in the Kremlin was not on a sanctions list. In parallel, after decades of focus on other missions, NATO is now retrained on deterring a threat from Russia. Two years ago, in his address to the United Nations General Assembly, President Obama argued that the three greatest threats to the world were Ebola, IS militants, and Russia. In parallel to these actions and reactions between our two governments, the majority of Russians and Americans now view each other again as enemies. This is a tragedy. For last three decades, American presidents--Democrats and Republicans alike--sought to integrate Russia into the West and encourage democracy inside Russia in parallel. Both of those projects are now over. How did we get to this point and must be now to pursue American national interests in our relations with Russia? Diagnosis: Domestic Sources of Russian Foreign Policy Too often, we in the United States jump to the discussion of what must be done before properly diagnosing the problem. In the case of US-Russia relations, the United States will only develop successful policy prescriptions if we accurately understand the causes of our current conflict with Russia. A poor diagnosis can lead to bad policy prescriptions. One popular explanation of the current confrontation in Moscow and in some circles in Europe and the United States is that the United States and its allies in Europe have been pressing on Russia too hard for too many decades and Putin just had to push back. The West lectured the Russians about markets and democracy, then expanded NATO, bombed Serbia, invaded Iraq, allegedly supported color revolutions and the Arab Spring, and Putin finally felt compelled to strike back by annexing Crimea and intervening in eastern Ukraine, or so the argument goes. This explanation is wrong. Although Presidents Yeltsin and Putin both at one point in their careers suggested that Russia should consider joining NATO, this idea was never popular in Moscow. Nor did most Russian officials support the NATO campaign against Milosevic, the Bush administration's invasion of Iraq, or so-called color revolutions in Serbia, Georgia, and Ukraine. Yet, these older policy differences cannot explain the current confrontation. In the intervening period, we have had an intense and successful period of cooperation with Russia, known in the Obama administration as the reset. During the era of the reset, from 2009-2012, President Obama and Russian President Medvedev worked together on several projects, which improved the security and prosperity of both countries. In this period, the two countries signed and then ratified the New START Treaty, passed in the spring of 2010 United Nations Security Council Resolution 1929, the most comprehensive set of sanctions against Iran. …
Publication Year: 2016
Publication Date: 2016-09-22
Language: en
Type: article
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