Title: Beyond Pessimism: Why the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Will Not Collapse
Abstract: AbstractAbstractThis article questions the predominantly pessimistic assessments over the future of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). After analysing available evidence on states' interests and interactions within the NPT's framework, it argues that several negative expectations are unwarranted. Conversely, the article identifies three potentially threatening scenarios. Therefore, it scrutinizes the likely impact of reactive nuclear proliferation; analyses the probability of significant actors challenging the existent nuclear architecture; and explores whether the treaty's enforcement might soon be diluted. The article concludes the NPT is unlikely to face fundamental threats in the foreseeable future.Key Words: Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)Nuclear WeaponsNon-ProliferationDisarmamentMultilateral Treaties AcknowledgementsThe author thanks Stephen Aris, Eliza Gheorghe, Jonas Hagmann, Mark Daniel Jäger, Ulla Jasper, Roland Popp, Jan Ruzicka, Aglaya Snetkov, Andreas Wenger and the anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments and advice.Additional informationNotes on contributorsLiviu HorovitzLiviu Horovitz is a PhD candidate at the ETH Zurich. Prior to his PhD studies, he held a research position within the nuclear-policy working group at the Center for Security Studies in Zurich, was a consultant for the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization in Vienna, and worked as a research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Monterey. His research has been printed, for example, in European Security, The Washington Quarterly, The Nonproliferation Review, The International Spectator, The RUSI Journal, and the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.
Publication Year: 2014
Publication Date: 2014-07-24
Language: en
Type: article
Indexed In: ['crossref']
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Cited By Count: 25
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