Title: Chinese Energy Policy and Its Implication for Global Supply Security
Abstract: AbstractChina is by now the world's largest energy consumer, accounting for 11 percent of oil, 3.5 percent of natural gas, and nearly half of all coal consumption worldwide. IEA projects that solely China will account for 30 percent of global growth in energy demand until 2035 and its share of global energy consumption will increase to 23 percent. Since the turn of the millennium this immense rise of demand encounters increasingly tight resource markets and Beijing shows an extraordinary pragmatism to enforce its interests in terms of energy policy abroad. All political, economic and diplomatic capacities are utilized to diversify its supplies. Accordingly, the Chinese energy policy affects the world markets as well as the global supply security. Although the assessments regarding the Chinese impact on global energy supply security are quite diverse, a policy of wait and see is not sufficient. article elaborates options to react to the challenges evolving from the Chinese energy policy.Key Words: Chinese Energy Policy, Global Supply Security, Energy Cooperation with China.INTRODUCTIONThe energy landscape is always in a state of flux with strategic adjustments of energy politics as well as sudden occurrences like the turmoil in the Middle East or the Fulmsliima disaster. Nevertheless, some basic trends could be identified to characterize major developments in terms of energy demand and supply in the midterm until 20351. World primary energy demand is projected to grow by 1.3 percent per year, which means a total increase in global energy demand of 40 percent until 2035 (International Energy Agency 2011, p. 70). Fossil fuels will account for 59 percent of the increase worldwide, thus their share of world primary energy demand will only slightly decrease from 81 percent to 75 percent in 2035 (International Energy Agency 2011, pp.71, 76). Oil demand will rise from 84 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2009 to 99 mb/d in 2035 (International Energy Agency 2011, p. 76). So, despite energy security and climate concerns, oil demand continues to grow and the global economy relies on oil more than on any other fuel (International Energy Agency 2011, p. 76). Demand for coal will increase about 25 percent (International Energy Agency 2011, p. 76), while the absolute growth of natural gas consumption is nearly equal to that of oil and coal combined reaching a 54 percent increase through 2035 (International Energy Agency 2011, p. 78).Besides their increasing import dependency regarding fossil fuels the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries as traditional major energy consumers are exposed to an intensified competition with emerging countries especially those in Asia. Thus, the focus of growth in energy demand moves away from the OECD as non-OECD countries become accountable for 90 percent of global demand growth through 2035 because of higher growth rates in population, economic development, and urbanization. Their share in global energy demand will rise from 54 percent in 2010 to 64 percent in 2035 (International Energy Agency 2011, p. 80). With regard to different energy sources nonOECD countries will generate 73 percent of the global increase in nuclear power, 55 percent of the increase in non-hydro renewable energy and 88 percent of the increase in hydropower generation. But they will also account for all of the global growth in coal and oil demand as well as 80 percent of additional demand of natural gas (International Energy Agency 2011, pp.42, 80). However, the region Pacific holds only 3.3 percent of global oil and 8.7 percent of global natural gas reserves meaning that four-fifths of the oil consumed in non-OECD Asia will have to come from imports in 2035, compared with just over half in 2010 (British Petroleum 2011, pp.6, 20; International Energy Agency 2011, p. 41). The rising dependence on imports in some non-OECD regions, particularly in Asia, will inevitably heighten concerns about supply security, as reliance grows on supplies from a small number of producers, especially in the Middle East and North Africa (International Energy Agency 2011, p. …
Publication Year: 2012
Publication Date: 2012-04-01
Language: en
Type: article
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