Title: From the last days of the boom to lasting improvements in living standards
Abstract: In 2012 PNG's economy enjoyed what it is likely to be the last year of strong growth for most sectors of PNG's economy in this economic cycle. Construction of PNG-LNG and various spin-off investments, and broader investments in the domestic service sectors, continued to be key drivers. External conditions detracted from the economy, although they also helped to slow growth in prices. The government's 2013 budget represents a marked change from recent years, with the largest deficit on record aside from the 2009 global economic crisis, substantially more funds allocated to lower-level administrative units, and markedly slower revenue growth expected. While this budget may be affordable in the short-term, an extended series of deficits of this size risk returning PNG to the macroeconomic instability that followed its last extended economic boom, as the government has acknowledged. The government expects to bring the budget back to balance by the 2017 elections through stronger revenue growth and plans to slow spending. Many of these plans appear ambitious, and may create tensions with the government's development goals. By capping the government's debt ratios, the new medium-term debt strategy anchors these fiscal targets. But there are significant risks around these projections, and around the effectiveness of spending as far more funds are allocated to less developed areas of PNG's public financial management systems. Improving this will be a key to addressing PNG's significant human development needs, documented in the recently-released 2009-2010 PNG household income and expenditure survey. Over coming years, growth across the economy is likely to slow significantly, beyond the large impact on headline growth rates of first production from the PNG-LNG project. In this environment, the foundations for PNG's next boom will lie in ensuring government policies effectively and efficiently help Papua New Guinea's emerging entrepreneurs do business.
Publication Year: 2013
Publication Date: 2013-01-01
Language: en
Type: article
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