Title: A causal-based multi-sectoral approach to the prevention of road traffic accidents and prioritization of response measures in South Africa
Abstract: Road transport plays a critical role in promoting mobility, accessibility and poverty alleviation. While average household car ownership rates in the developing world remain low, there has generally been an unprecedented growth in vehicle population, particularly in urban areas. This has also seen a rapid increase in road accidents and fatalities. The causes of road carnages are multiple. They can however be classified broadly under engineering, environmental, mechanical and human factors, usually termed: Human (H), Vehicle (V) and Road (R) environment factors. These broad categories need to be adequately and critically analyzed for each accident in order to design sustainable, integrated and effective preventive responses. Accident statistics, particularly in the developing world, are generally incomplete and inadequate. This makes it very difficult to carry out holistic analyses, design responses and preventive measures and prioritize them. As a result, most responses are rather reactive, thereby only addressing the symptoms. This has resulted in many people continuously getting injured or losing their lives daily. This paper proposes a multi-pronged approach, which utilizes the above broad causes to holistically analyze accidents. It makes use of a simple approach which weights the different causes in order to identify and trace the causal chain involved in a particular accident. Such a holistic causal analysis of different accidents is useful in the determination and prioritization of responses and preventive measures. It also provides a framework for predicting the possibility of accidents occurring at particular locations and hence the determination of black spots. It also ensures that responses and preventive measures are driven from a multi-sectoral basis. INTRODUCTION Despite having lower vehicle populations in developing countries, worldwide trends show that the total number of people who lose their lives or get injured in road carnages continues to rise. This is not the case in the developed and highly motorized countries. Statistics show that between 1987 and 1995, road fatalities were highest in Latin America (over 60%) followed by the Asia-Pacific countries (40%). African countries accounted for over 25% although North Africa had as high as 36%. On the contrary, during the same period, road deaths in the developed world declined by an average of over 10 per cent during the same period. (NDoT: 2007). It is appreciable that many developing and transitional countries have undertaken a number of infrastructure rehabilitation and modernization programs to deal with growing vehicle populations on their roads. However, it should also be understood that generally such efforts fail to integrate road safety at an early stage in these massive infrastructure projects. For instance in South Africa, statistics show a high proportion of accidents involving cars and pedestrians as well as cyclists (NDoT: 2009). It was only recently that non motorized modes of transport have been seriously considered as legitimate users of road space. Most road infrastructure projects fail to accommodate the latter, thereby resulting in fatalities and/ or life threatening injuries. A critical analysis of accident trends in developing, transitional and developed countries shows that there is no direct relationship between car ownership levels and road traffic accident distribution. Instead other factors influence the distribution and occurrence of road carnages across different countries. Generally these factors can be broadly classified under engineering, traffic management, environmental, mechanical and human factors. A closer analysis of these broad factors is required in order to determine the chain of events that take place to result in an accident. This is important in highlighting black spots and designing of remedial measures to avoid future accidents. This paper acknowledges the deficiencies associated with accident investigation and statistics in the developing world and how it handicaps exhaustive analyses of the above broad factors. For instance the Minister of Transport (2007) acknowledged the dearth of accurate and up to date accident statistics in most local authorities in South Africa, as well as the associated difficulties of engaging in holistic analyses. (Internal Question Paper Number 36, 2007). The author strongly advocates for an exhaustive investigation, recording and reconstruction of accidents. The author however acknowledges the amount of work involved given the number of accidents that take place annually. Records should reflect all the useful data required in the analysis and designing of interventions to prevent future loss of life. Such data should indicate the exact location of the accident, traffic conditions, driving behaviour, speed limits, environmental conditions, traffic management systems in place, etc. BACKGROUND TO ROAD TRAFFIC ACCIDENT FACTORS The use of the term “road accident” gives an impression that it is the supernatural act of God which nobody has absolutely any control over. This shuts out all opportunities for proactive prevention. Terms such as “collision, crash, incident” etc are indicative that they are the result of some fault and that something can be done to avoid or prevent them. They are indicative of the existence of certain factors that caused the accident, injuries or death e.g. reckless, drunken and negligent inconsiderate driver behavior, non wearing of seatbelts, etc). Black spots are areas where traffic conflicts develop into accidents. Usually black spots cannot be defined through statistics only. It is critical to establish the traffic conflicts and address them to prevent loss of life or injuries, before accidents happen. (Sedan, 2008) Accidents should be visualized by answering the questions ‘what, who, where, when, how and why? These give a reflection of the type of vehicles, location, persons involved, time and type of accident as well as the key contributory factors. Generally accidents are a product of multiple events or factors described above. Such factors include behavioral (B), vehicle (V) and highway (H) factors. In investigating accidents, it is critical to understand that they involve a chain of links. The challenge is to establish the strongest link in the causal chain. Bfactors are human and include drunkenness, fatigue, poor vision, sleepiness, sickness, over speeding etc, which affect the driver’s capacity to control the vehicle. Earlier detection and addressing of these factors can result in most accidents being prevented. Unfortunately, the reality is usually that it takes an accident to prevent another. (Sadan: ibid). V-factors have to do with the mechanical set-up of the vehicle. These include the functional condition of brakes, lights, steering wheel, tyres and the presence and condition of passive and active safety devices on the vehicle. A combination of these V-factors influences the ability of the driver to control the car. For instance several accidents have been recorded where one or a combination of these factors played a part. Non functional brakes can cause collisions, running down of pedestrians etc. Tyre bursts can result in vehicle overturns or collisions. It is important that vehicles undergo regular fitness tests to ensure that these factors are addressed to prevent accidents and loss of lives. (Sadan: ibid). H-factors have to do with the road infrastructure. Like other factors, they normally occur as a combination to influence the occurrence of an accident. For instance the geometric design of the road, confusing or unclear lane markings or traffic signs, wet and slippery surface, etc can act together to cause an accident. Some of these factors are shown in Plate 1 below. Too many signs on one pole Plate 1: Accident Causing H-Factors (Source Adopted from Sadan: 2008) Inadequately erased lane markings
Publication Year: 2009
Publication Date: 2009-07-06
Language: en
Type: article
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