Publication Information

{'id': 'https://openalex.org/W3125553560', 'doi': 'https://doi.org/10.1080/01944360508976688', 'title': 'How (In)accurate Are Demand Forecasts in Public Works Projects?: The Case of Transportation', 'display_name': 'How (In)accurate Are Demand Forecasts in Public Works Projects?: The Case of Transportation', 'publication_year': 2005, 'publication_date': '2005-06-30', 'ids': {'openalex': 'https://openalex.org/W3125553560', 'doi': 'https://doi.org/10.1080/01944360508976688', 'mag': '3125553560'}, 'language': 'en', 'primary_location': {'is_oa': False, 'landing_page_url': 'https://doi.org/10.1080/01944360508976688', 'pdf_url': None, 'source': {'id': 'https://openalex.org/S79990064', 'display_name': 'Journal of the American Planning Association', 'issn_l': '0194-4363', 'issn': ['0194-4363', '1939-0130'], 'is_oa': False, 'is_in_doaj': False, 'is_core': True, 'host_organization': 'https://openalex.org/P4310320547', 'host_organization_name': 'Taylor & Francis', 'host_organization_lineage': ['https://openalex.org/P4310320547'], 'host_organization_lineage_names': ['Taylor & Francis'], 'type': 'journal'}, 'license': None, 'license_id': None, 'version': None, 'is_accepted': False, 'is_published': False}, 'type': 'article', 'type_crossref': 'journal-article', 'indexed_in': ['crossref'], 'open_access': {'is_oa': True, 'oa_status': 'green', 'oa_url': 'https://arxiv.org/pdf/1303.6654', 'any_repository_has_fulltext': True}, 'authorships': [{'author_position': 'first', 'author': {'id': 'https://openalex.org/A5005958261', 'display_name': 'Bent Flyvbjerg', 'orcid': 'https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9093-770X'}, 'institutions': [{'id': 'https://openalex.org/I891191580', 'display_name': 'Aalborg University', 'ror': 'https://ror.org/04m5j1k67', 'country_code': 'DK', 'type': 'education', 'lineage': ['https://openalex.org/I891191580']}, {'id': 'https://openalex.org/I4210135132', 'display_name': 'Cambridge University Press', 'ror': 'https://ror.org/03jsdjx34', 'country_code': 'GB', 'type': 'company', 'lineage': ['https://openalex.org/I241749', 'https://openalex.org/I4210135132']}, {'id': 'https://openalex.org/I4210096386', 'display_name': 'Bridge University', 'ror': 'https://ror.org/00cbm0437', 'country_code': 'SS', 'type': 'education', 'lineage': ['https://openalex.org/I4210096386']}, {'id': 'https://openalex.org/I241749', 'display_name': 'University of Cambridge', 'ror': 'https://ror.org/013meh722', 'country_code': 'GB', 'type': 'education', 'lineage': ['https://openalex.org/I241749']}, {'id': 'https://openalex.org/I40347166', 'display_name': 'University of Chicago', 'ror': 'https://ror.org/024mw5h28', 'country_code': 'US', 'type': 'education', 'lineage': ['https://openalex.org/I40347166']}], 'countries': ['DK', 'GB', 'SS', 'US'], 'is_corresponding': True, 'raw_author_name': 'Bent Flyvbjerg', 'raw_affiliation_strings': ['(University of Chicago Press, 1998', 'Aalborg University, Denmark', 'Aalborg University, Denmark.', 'Aalborg University.', 'Cambridge University', 'Department of Development and Planning, Aalborg University Fibigerstraede 11, 9220 Aalborg, Denmark', 'Making Social Science Matter (Cambridge University Press,', 'professor of planning at Aalborg University.'], 'affiliations': [{'raw_affiliation_string': 'Aalborg University, Denmark.', 'institution_ids': ['https://openalex.org/I891191580']}, {'raw_affiliation_string': 'Department of Development and Planning, Aalborg University Fibigerstraede 11, 9220 Aalborg, Denmark', 'institution_ids': ['https://openalex.org/I891191580']}, {'raw_affiliation_string': 'Making Social Science Matter (Cambridge University Press,', 'institution_ids': ['https://openalex.org/I4210135132']}, {'raw_affiliation_string': 'professor of planning at Aalborg University.', 'institution_ids': ['https://openalex.org/I891191580']}, {'raw_affiliation_string': 'Cambridge University', 'institution_ids': ['https://openalex.org/I4210096386', 'https://openalex.org/I241749']}, {'raw_affiliation_string': 'Aalborg University, Denmark', 'institution_ids': ['https://openalex.org/I891191580']}, {'raw_affiliation_string': '(University of Chicago Press, 1998', 'institution_ids': ['https://openalex.org/I40347166']}, {'raw_affiliation_string': 'Aalborg University.', 'institution_ids': ['https://openalex.org/I891191580']}]}, {'author_position': 'middle', 'author': {'id': 'https://openalex.org/A5111889003', 'display_name': 'Mette K. Skamris Holm', 'orcid': None}, 'institutions': [{'id': 'https://openalex.org/I891191580', 'display_name': 'Aalborg University', 'ror': 'https://ror.org/04m5j1k67', 'country_code': 'DK', 'type': 'education', 'lineage': ['https://openalex.org/I891191580']}], 'countries': ['DK'], 'is_corresponding': False, 'raw_author_name': 'Mette K. Skamris Holm', 'raw_affiliation_strings': ['Aalborg university'], 'affiliations': [{'raw_affiliation_string': 'Aalborg university', 'institution_ids': ['https://openalex.org/I891191580']}]}, {'author_position': 'last', 'author': {'id': 'https://openalex.org/A5110738012', 'display_name': 'Søren L. Buhl', 'orcid': None}, 'institutions': [{'id': 'https://openalex.org/I891191580', 'display_name': 'Aalborg University', 'ror': 'https://ror.org/04m5j1k67', 'country_code': 'DK', 'type': 'education', 'lineage': ['https://openalex.org/I891191580']}], 'countries': ['DK'], 'is_corresponding': False, 'raw_author_name': 'Søren L. Buhl', 'raw_affiliation_strings': ['Aalborg university'], 'affiliations': [{'raw_affiliation_string': 'Aalborg university', 'institution_ids': ['https://openalex.org/I891191580']}]}], 'institution_assertions': [], 'countries_distinct_count': 4, 'institutions_distinct_count': 5, 'corresponding_author_ids': ['https://openalex.org/A5005958261'], 'corresponding_institution_ids': ['https://openalex.org/I891191580', 'https://openalex.org/I4210135132', 'https://openalex.org/I4210096386', 'https://openalex.org/I241749', 'https://openalex.org/I40347166'], 'apc_list': None, 'apc_paid': None, 'fwci': 38.245, 'has_fulltext': True, 'fulltext_origin': 'pdf', 'cited_by_count': 628, 'citation_normalized_percentile': {'value': 0.999659, 'is_in_top_1_percent': True, 'is_in_top_10_percent': True}, 'cited_by_percentile_year': {'min': 99, 'max': 100}, 'biblio': {'volume': '71', 'issue': '2', 'first_page': '131', 'last_page': '146'}, 'is_retracted': False, 'is_paratext': False, 'primary_topic': {'id': 'https://openalex.org/T10698', 'display_name': 'Transportation Planning and Optimization', 'score': 0.9982, 'subfield': {'id': 'https://openalex.org/subfields/3313', 'display_name': 'Transportation'}, 'field': {'id': 'https://openalex.org/fields/33', 'display_name': 'Social Sciences'}, 'domain': {'id': 'https://openalex.org/domains/2', 'display_name': 'Social Sciences'}}, 'topics': [{'id': 'https://openalex.org/T10698', 'display_name': 'Transportation Planning and Optimization', 'score': 0.9982, 'subfield': {'id': 'https://openalex.org/subfields/3313', 'display_name': 'Transportation'}, 'field': {'id': 'https://openalex.org/fields/33', 'display_name': 'Social Sciences'}, 'domain': {'id': 'https://openalex.org/domains/2', 'display_name': 'Social Sciences'}}, {'id': 'https://openalex.org/T10841', 'display_name': 'Economic and Environmental Valuation', 'score': 0.9919, 'subfield': {'id': 'https://openalex.org/subfields/2002', 'display_name': 'Economics and Econometrics'}, 'field': {'id': 'https://openalex.org/fields/20', 'display_name': 'Economics, Econometrics and Finance'}, 'domain': {'id': 'https://openalex.org/domains/2', 'display_name': 'Social Sciences'}}, {'id': 'https://openalex.org/T10298', 'display_name': 'Urban Transport and Accessibility', 'score': 0.9849, 'subfield': {'id': 'https://openalex.org/subfields/3313', 'display_name': 'Transportation'}, 'field': {'id': 'https://openalex.org/fields/33', 'display_name': 'Social Sciences'}, 'domain': {'id': 'https://openalex.org/domains/2', 'display_name': 'Social Sciences'}}], 'keywords': [], 'concepts': [{'id': 'https://openalex.org/C2779913896', 'wikidata': 'https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7063001', 'display_name': 'Notice', 'level': 2, 'score': 0.6901065}, {'id': 'https://openalex.org/C2780233690', 'wikidata': 'https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q535347', 'display_name': 'Transparency (behavior)', 'level': 2, 'score': 0.5759882}, {'id': 'https://openalex.org/C2776007630', 'wikidata': 'https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2798912', 'display_name': 'Accountability', 'level': 2, 'score': 0.4563194}, {'id': 'https://openalex.org/C22212356', 'wikidata': 'https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q775325', 'display_name': 'Transport engineering', 'level': 1, 'score': 0.4251157}, {'id': 'https://openalex.org/C162324750', 'wikidata': 'https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134', 'display_name': 'Economics', 'level': 0, 'score': 0.4000531}, {'id': 'https://openalex.org/C10138342', 'wikidata': 'https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q43015', 'display_name': 'Finance', 'level': 1, 'score': 0.38854665}, {'id': 'https://openalex.org/C144133560', 'wikidata': 'https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4830453', 'display_name': 'Business', 'level': 0, 'score': 0.3628323}, {'id': 'https://openalex.org/C148383697', 'wikidata': 'https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1781695', 'display_name': 'Regional science', 'level': 1, 'score': 0.3430627}, {'id': 'https://openalex.org/C41008148', 'wikidata': 'https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198', 'display_name': 'Computer science', 'level': 0, 'score': 0.22257337}, {'id': 'https://openalex.org/C127413603', 'wikidata': 'https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023', 'display_name': 'Engineering', 'level': 0, 'score': 0.20877}, {'id': 'https://openalex.org/C17744445', 'wikidata': 'https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442', 'display_name': 'Political science', 'level': 0, 'score': 0.17330924}, {'id': 'https://openalex.org/C144024400', 'wikidata': 'https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21201', 'display_name': 'Sociology', 'level': 0, 'score': 0.15658161}, {'id': 'https://openalex.org/C38652104', 'wikidata': 'https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3510521', 'display_name': 'Computer security', 'level': 1, 'score': 0.0}, {'id': 'https://openalex.org/C199539241', 'wikidata': 'https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7748', 'display_name': 'Law', 'level': 1, 'score': 0.0}], 'mesh': [], 'locations_count': 3, 'locations': [{'is_oa': False, 'landing_page_url': 'https://doi.org/10.1080/01944360508976688', 'pdf_url': None, 'source': {'id': 'https://openalex.org/S79990064', 'display_name': 'Journal of the American Planning Association', 'issn_l': '0194-4363', 'issn': ['0194-4363', '1939-0130'], 'is_oa': False, 'is_in_doaj': False, 'is_core': True, 'host_organization': 'https://openalex.org/P4310320547', 'host_organization_name': 'Taylor & Francis', 'host_organization_lineage': ['https://openalex.org/P4310320547'], 'host_organization_lineage_names': ['Taylor & Francis'], 'type': 'journal'}, 'license': None, 'license_id': None, 'version': None, 'is_accepted': False, 'is_published': False}, {'is_oa': True, 'landing_page_url': 'https://arxiv.org/pdf/1303.6654', 'pdf_url': 'https://arxiv.org/pdf/1303.6654', 'source': {'id': 'https://openalex.org/S4306400194', 'display_name': 'arXiv (Cornell University)', 'issn_l': None, 'issn': None, 'is_oa': True, 'is_in_doaj': False, 'is_core': False, 'host_organization': 'https://openalex.org/I205783295', 'host_organization_name': 'Cornell University', 'host_organization_lineage': ['https://openalex.org/I205783295'], 'host_organization_lineage_names': ['Cornell University'], 'type': 'repository'}, 'license': None, 'license_id': None, 'version': 'submittedVersion', 'is_accepted': False, 'is_published': False}, {'is_oa': True, 'landing_page_url': 'http://arxiv.org/abs/1303.6654', 'pdf_url': 'http://arxiv.org/pdf/1303.6654', 'source': {'id': 'https://openalex.org/S4306400194', 'display_name': 'arXiv (Cornell University)', 'issn_l': None, 'issn': None, 'is_oa': True, 'is_in_doaj': False, 'is_core': False, 'host_organization': 'https://openalex.org/I205783295', 'host_organization_name': 'Cornell University', 'host_organization_lineage': ['https://openalex.org/I205783295'], 'host_organization_lineage_names': ['Cornell University'], 'type': 'repository'}, 'license': None, 'license_id': None, 'version': 'submittedVersion', 'is_accepted': False, 'is_published': False}], 'best_oa_location': {'is_oa': True, 'landing_page_url': 'https://arxiv.org/pdf/1303.6654', 'pdf_url': 'https://arxiv.org/pdf/1303.6654', 'source': {'id': 'https://openalex.org/S4306400194', 'display_name': 'arXiv (Cornell University)', 'issn_l': None, 'issn': None, 'is_oa': True, 'is_in_doaj': False, 'is_core': False, 'host_organization': 'https://openalex.org/I205783295', 'host_organization_name': 'Cornell University', 'host_organization_lineage': ['https://openalex.org/I205783295'], 'host_organization_lineage_names': ['Cornell University'], 'type': 'repository'}, 'license': None, 'license_id': None, 'version': 'submittedVersion', 'is_accepted': False, 'is_published': False}, 'sustainable_development_goals': [{'score': 0.44, 'display_name': 'Industry, innovation and infrastructure', 'id': 'https://metadata.un.org/sdg/9'}], 'grants': [], 'datasets': [], 'versions': [], 'referenced_works_count': 40, 'referenced_works': ['https://openalex.org/W105264778', 'https://openalex.org/W1531195620', 'https://openalex.org/W1574089532', 'https://openalex.org/W1587257181', 'https://openalex.org/W1597098184', 'https://openalex.org/W1607833609', 'https://openalex.org/W1628374438', 'https://openalex.org/W1971448778', 'https://openalex.org/W1972068433', 'https://openalex.org/W1984411180', 'https://openalex.org/W1986721142', 'https://openalex.org/W1991556914', 'https://openalex.org/W2008467464', 'https://openalex.org/W2037031450', 'https://openalex.org/W2083552118', 'https://openalex.org/W2093878443', 'https://openalex.org/W2100179499', 'https://openalex.org/W2104091263', 'https://openalex.org/W211934878', 'https://openalex.org/W2132886521', 'https://openalex.org/W2132919009', 'https://openalex.org/W2133469585', 'https://openalex.org/W2242842357', 'https://openalex.org/W2338238177', 'https://openalex.org/W2402319963', 'https://openalex.org/W2579266776', 'https://openalex.org/W2598397370', 'https://openalex.org/W2739390026', 'https://openalex.org/W3011865677', 'https://openalex.org/W3121843240', 'https://openalex.org/W3122574529', 'https://openalex.org/W3123664731', 'https://openalex.org/W36227095', 'https://openalex.org/W4250296667', 'https://openalex.org/W4285719527', 'https://openalex.org/W4293258543', 'https://openalex.org/W4301377693', 'https://openalex.org/W587593878', 'https://openalex.org/W624299134', 'https://openalex.org/W84691925'], 'related_works': ['https://openalex.org/W4300782058', 'https://openalex.org/W3199802296', 'https://openalex.org/W3018282762', 'https://openalex.org/W2791183434', 'https://openalex.org/W2558055997', 'https://openalex.org/W2394387726', 'https://openalex.org/W2378724474', 'https://openalex.org/W2353369313', 'https://openalex.org/W2086339586', 'https://openalex.org/W1472269183'], 'abstract_inverted_index': {'Abstract': [0], 'This': [1, 196], 'article': [2, 188, 197, 203], 'presents': [3], 'results': [4], 'from': [5], 'the': [6, 22, 53, 70, 81, 110, 129, 136, 179, 202, 235, 246], 'first': [7], 'statistically': [8], 'significant': [9], 'study': [10, 37], 'of': [11, 24, 51, 62, 77, 112, 142, 237, 240, 245], 'traffic': [12, 87], 'forecasts': [13, 67, 122, 145], 'in': [14, 30, 144, 201, 205, 209, 211, 243], 'transportation': [15, 56], 'infrastructure': [16, 57], 'projects.': [17, 58], 'The': [18, 36, 92, 140, 165, 174], 'sample': [19], 'used': [20], 'is': [21, 73, 88, 94, 167, 176, 234], 'largest': [23], 'its': [25], 'kind,': [26], 'covering': [27], '210': [28], 'projects': [29], '14': [31], 'nations': [32], 'worth': [33], 'U.S.$59': [34], 'billion.': [35], 'shows': [38, 189], 'with': [39, 153], 'very': [40], 'high': [41], 'statistical': [42], 'significance': [43], 'that': [44, 121], 'forecasters': [45], 'generally': [46], 'do': [47], 'a': [48, 157, 238], 'poor': [49], 'job': [50], 'estimating': [52], 'demand': [54], 'for': [55, 148, 160, 163, 182], 'For': [59, 75], '9': [60], 'out': [61], '10': [63], 'rail': [64, 149, 161], 'projects,': [65, 80, 152], 'passenger': [66], 'are': [68, 99, 146], 'overestimated;': [69], 'average': [71], 'overestima-tion': [72], '106%.': [74], 'half': [76], 'all': [78], 'road': [79, 151], 'difference': [82], 'between': [83], 'actual': [84], 'and': [85, 106, 114, 150, 170, 184, 219, 233], 'forecasted': [86], 'more': [89, 126], 'than': [90, 162], '±20%.': [91], 'result': [93], 'substantial': [95], 'financial': [96], 'risks,': [97], 'which': [98], 'typically': [100], 'ignored': [101], 'or': [102], 'downplayed': [103], 'by': [104, 138], 'planners': [105, 191], 'decision': [107], 'makers': [108], 'to': [109, 135, 177], 'detriment': [111], 'social': [113], 'economic': [115], 'welfare.': [116], 'Our': [117, 187], 'data': [118], 'also': [119], 'show': [120], 'have': [123], 'not': [124], 'become': [125], 'accurate': [127], 'over': [128], '30-year': [130], 'period': [131], 'studied,': [132], 'despite': [133], 'claims': [134], 'contrary': [137], 'forecasters.': [139], 'causes': [141, 155], 'inaccuracy': [143], 'different': [147], 'political': [154], 'playing': [156], 'larger': [158], 'role': [159], 'road.': [164], 'cure': [166], 'transparency,': [168], 'accountability,': [169], 'new': [171], 'forecasting': [172, 183], 'methods.': [173], 'challenge': [175], 'change': [178], 'governance': [180], 'structures': [181], 'project': [185], 'development.': [186], 'how': [190], 'may': [192], 'help': [193], 'achieve': [194], 'this.': [195], 'was': [198], 'substantially': [199], 'reproduced': [200], '"Inaccuracy': [204], 'Traffic': [206], 'Forecasts",': [207], 'published': [208], '2006': [210], 'Transport': [212, 223], 'Reviews': [213], '[Bent': [214], 'Flyvbjerg,': [215], 'Mette': [216], 'Skamris': [217], 'Holm,': [218], 'Søren': [220], 'L.': [221], 'Buhl,': [222], 'Reviews,': [224], 'Vol.': [225, 250], '26,': [226], 'Issue': [227, 252], '1,': [228], '2006,': [229], 'pp.': [230], '1–24': [231], '(retracted)]': [232], 'subject': [236], 'Notice': [239], 'Redundant': [241], 'Publication': [242], 'Journal': [244], 'American': [247], 'Planning': [248], 'Association,': [249], '78,': [251], '3,': [253], 'page': [254], '352,': [255], '2012.': [256], 'doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01944363.2012.719432': [257]}, 'cited_by_api_url': 'https://api.openalex.org/works?filter=cites:W3125553560', 'counts_by_year': [{'year': 2024, 'cited_by_count': 17}, {'year': 2023, 'cited_by_count': 19}, {'year': 2022, 'cited_by_count': 21}, {'year': 2021, 'cited_by_count': 33}, {'year': 2020, 'cited_by_count': 44}, {'year': 2019, 'cited_by_count': 42}, {'year': 2018, 'cited_by_count': 37}, {'year': 2017, 'cited_by_count': 36}, {'year': 2016, 'cited_by_count': 44}, {'year': 2015, 'cited_by_count': 52}, {'year': 2014, 'cited_by_count': 53}, {'year': 2013, 'cited_by_count': 44}, {'year': 2012, 'cited_by_count': 39}], 'updated_date': '2024-12-20T20:38:13.485952', 'created_date': '2021-02-01'}