Title: Time to build, option value, and investment decisions
Abstract: Investment decisions and outlays are often made sequentially. For example, the rate at which construction proceeds is usually flexible and can be adjusted with the arrival of new information. Traditional discounted cash flow methods which treat the pattern of investment as fixed ignore this flexibility and understate the value of the project. This paper uses contingent claims analysis to derive optimal decision rules and to value such investments. We determine the effects of time to build, opportunity cost and uncertainty on the investment decision. For reasonable parameter values, we show how a simple NPV rule can lead to gross errors.