Title: Why DNA Likelihood Ratios Should Account for Error (Even When A National Research Council Report Says They Should Not)
Abstract:The possibility of error limits the strength of DNA evidence in the same way that it limits the strength of other kinds of legal evidence. However, a 1996 report by the National Research Council recom...The possibility of error limits the strength of DNA evidence in the same way that it limits the strength of other kinds of legal evidence. However, a 1996 report by the National Research Council recommends against estimating an error rate derived from proficiency tests to help identify the probative value of DNA evidence. The Committee's arguments are identified and critiqued. It is argued that error rate data derived from broad reference classes such as all DNA laboratories provide a relevant starting point for estimating the risk of error in individual cases. Likelihood ratios that fail to incorporate this estimate may be misleading. CITATION: Jonathan J. Koehler, Why DNA Likelihood Ratios Should Account for Error, 37 Jurimetrics J. 425-437 (1997). The legal and scientific communities have become increasingly interested in the use of likelihood ratios (LRs) to describe the strength of scientific evidence presented at trial.1 Specifically, many have argued that the strength of ?Jonathan J. Koehler is Associate Professor of Behavioral Decision Making, Graduate School of Business and Law School, The University of Texas at Austin. This paper is based on a presentation at the International Conference on Forensic Statistics, Edinburgh, Scotland, July, 1996. Address for correspondence: CBA 5.202, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712 1175. 512-471-7856 (phone), 512-471-0587 (fax), [email protected] (e-mail). 1. Ward Edwards, Comment, 66 B.U. L. Rev. 623 (1986); Richard O. Lempert, Modeling Relevance, 75 Mich. L. Rev. 1021 (1977); Thomas D. Lyon & Jonathan J. Koehler, The Relevance Ratio: Evaluating the Probative Value of Expert Testimony in Child Sexual AbuseRead More
Publication Year: 1997
Publication Date: 1997-01-01
Language: en
Type: article
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Cited By Count: 16
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