Title: Sustainability Of The Current Account Defict In Turkish Economy: A Periodic Time Series Analysis With Structural Breaks (1984q1-2017q4)
Abstract: In this study, it is aimed to investigate the sustainabilityof the currentaccount deficit level in Turkisheconomy, where the process of financially international expansion hasaccelerateduntil the 1980’s, under the inter-periodmodel developed by Husted (1992). In line with this purpose, sustainability level of the current account deficit in Turkish economy is examined periodically in a comparativeperspective by using time series analysis methodology with structural breaks for the periods 1984:Q1-2001:Q4, 2002:Q1-2017:Q4, and 1984:Q1-2017:Q4. As a result of the study, it is determined that the current accountdeficit in Turkish economy is strongly sustainable in the period 1984:Q1-2001:Q4while it is unsustainable or weakly sustainable in the periods 2017: Q4and 1984:Q1-2017:Q4. It is also determined that the unsustainability of the current account deficit is at its highest level or the sustainability of the current account deficit in a weak form is at its lowest level in the period 2002:Q1-2017:Q4. These results indicate a necessity of the development and the treatment of monetary and fiscal policy measures to remove the deficit between export revenues and import expendituresand reduce the current account deficit.
Publication Year: 2018
Publication Date: 2018-01-01
Language: en
Type: article
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