Publication Information

{'id': 'https://openalex.org/W3003403425', 'doi': 'https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3525558', 'title': 'Estimation of the Transmission Risk of 2019-nCov and Its Implication for Public Health Interventions', 'display_name': 'Estimation of the Transmission Risk of 2019-nCov and Its Implication for Public Health Interventions', 'publication_year': 2020, 'publication_date': '2020-01-01', 'ids': {'openalex': 'https://openalex.org/W3003403425', 'doi': 'https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3525558', 'mag': '3003403425'}, 'language': 'en', 'primary_location': {'is_oa': False, 'landing_page_url': 'https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3525558', 'pdf_url': None, 'source': {'id': 'https://openalex.org/S4210172589', 'display_name': 'SSRN Electronic Journal', 'issn_l': '1556-5068', 'issn': ['1556-5068'], 'is_oa': False, 'is_in_doaj': False, 'is_core': False, 'host_organization': 'https://openalex.org/I1318003438', 'host_organization_name': 'RELX Group (Netherlands)', 'host_organization_lineage': 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'Estimation': [30], 'basic': [33], 'reproduction': [34, 102, 133], 'number': [35, 103, 134, 226], 'by': [36, 124, 157, 172, 235], 'means': [37], 'mathematical': [39], 'modelling': [40], 'can': [41, 128, 176], 'be': [42, 105, 191], 'helpful': [43], 'for': [44, 57], 'determining': [45], 'potential': [47], 'severity': [49], 'an': [51], 'outbreak,': [52], 'providing': [54], 'critical': [55], 'information': [56], 'identifying': [58], 'type': [60], 'disease': [62], 'interventions': [63], 'intensity.Methods:': [65], 'A': [66], 'deterministic': [67], 'compartmental': [68], 'model': [69, 96], 'was': [70], 'devised': [71], 'based': [72, 92], 'on': [73, 93, 146], 'clinical': [75], 'progression': [76], 'disease,': [79], 'epidemiological': [80], 'status': [81], 'individuals,': [84], 'intervention': [87], 'measures.Findings:': [88], 'The': [89], 'estimation': [90], 'results': [91], 'likelihood': [94], 'analysis': [97], 'reveal': [98, 115], 'that': [99, 116], 'control': [101, 132, 182], 'may': [104], 'as': [106, 108, 119], 'high': [107], '6.47': [109], '(95%': [110], 'CI': [111], '5.71-7.23).': [112], 'Sensitivity': [113], 'analyses': [114], 'interventions,': [117], 'such': [118], 'intensive': [120], 'contact': [121], 'tracing': [122], 'followed': [123], 'quarantine': [125, 156], 'isolation,': [127], 'effectively': [129], 'reduce': [130], 'transmission': [136], 'risk,': [137], 'with': [138, 211, 240], 'effect': [140], 'travel': [142, 217, 245], 'restriction': [143, 218], 'Wuhan': [145], '2019-nCov': [147, 185], 'Beijing': [150], 'being': [151], 'almost': [152], 'equivalent': [153], 'increasing': [155], '100-thousand': [158], 'baseline': [159], 'value.Interpretation:': [160], 'It': [161], 'is': [162, 200], 'essential': [163], 'assess': [165], 'how': [166, 188], 'expensive,': [168], 'resource-intensive': [169], 'measures': [170], 'implemented': [171], 'Chinese': [174], 'authorities': [175], 'contribute': [177], 'prevention': [180], 'infection,': [186], 'long': [189], 'should': [190], 'maintained.': [192], 'Under': [193], 'most': [195], 'restrictive': [196], 'measures,': [197], 'outbreak': [199], 'expected': [201], 'peak': [203, 214], 'within': [204], 'two': [205], 'weeks': [206], '(since': [207], 'January': [208], '23rd': [209], '2020)': [210], 'significant': [212], 'low': [213], 'value.': [215], 'With': [216], '(no': [219], 'imported': [220], 'exposed': [221], 'individuals': [222, 229], 'Beijing),': [224], 'infected': [228], '7': [231], 'days': [232], 'will': [233], 'decrease': [234], '91.14%': [236], 'Beijing,': [238], 'compared': [239], 'scenario': [242], 'no': [244], 'restriction.Mandarin': [246], '背景:自从中国武汉出现第一例肺炎病例以来,新型冠状病毒(2019-nCov)感染已迅速传播到其他省份和周边国家。通过数学模型估计基本再生数,有助于确定疫情爆发的可能性和严重性,并为确定疾病干预类型和强度提供关键信息。方法:根据疾病的临床进展,个体的流行病学状况和干预措施,设计确定性的仓室模型。结果:基于似然函数和模型分析的估计结果表明,控制再生数可能高达6.47(95%CI': [248], '5.71-7.23)。敏感性分析显示,密集接触追踪和隔离等干预措施可以有效减少控制再生数和传播风险,武汉封城措施对北京2019-nCov感染的影响几乎等同于增加隔离措施10万的基线值。解释:必须评估中国当局实施的昂贵,资源密集型措施如何有助于预防和控制2019-nCov感染,以及应维持多长时间。在最严格的措施下,预计疫情将在两周内(自2020年1月23日起)达到峰值,峰值较低。与没有出行限制的情况相比,有了出行限制(即没有输入的潜伏类个体进入北京),北京的7天感染者数量将减少91.14%。': [249]}, 'cited_by_api_url': 'https://api.openalex.org/works?filter=cites:W3003403425', 'counts_by_year': [{'year': 2024, 'cited_by_count': 6}, {'year': 2023, 'cited_by_count': 9}, {'year': 2022, 'cited_by_count': 14}, {'year': 2021, 'cited_by_count': 51}, {'year': 2020, 'cited_by_count': 99}], 'updated_date': '2025-01-04T10:18:57.796567', 'created_date': '2020-02-07'}