Title: A multivariate cointegrated modelling approach in testing temporal causality between energy consumption, real income and prices with an application to two Asian LDCs
Abstract: Unlike previous studies on the casual relationship between energy consumption and economic growth, this paper illustrates how the finding of cointegration(i.e. long-term equilibrium relationship) between these variables, may be used in testing Granger causality. Based on the most recent Johansen's multiple cointegration tests preceded by various unit root or nonstationarity tests, we test for cointegration between total energy consumption, real income and price level of two Asian LDCs: Thailand and Sri Lanka. Nonrejection of cointegration between variables rules out Granger noncausality and implies at least one way of Granger-causality either unidirectional or bidirectional. Secondly, by using a dynamic vector error-correction model, we then analyse the direction of Granger-causation and hence the within-sample Grangerexogeneity or endogeneity of each of the variables. Thirdly, the relative strength of the causality is gauged (through the dynamic variance decomposition technique) by decomposing the total ...
Publication Year: 1998
Publication Date: 1998-01-01
Language: en
Type: article
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