Title: A CGE Analysis of Global Rice and Agriculture Trade Liberalisation: Welfare and Poverty Implications for Pakistan
Abstract: The objective of the research is to examine the macroeconomic, welfare and poverty impacts of global full and partial liberalization of rice trade and agriculture trade in Pakistan. Simulations are conducted in a CGE static framework using data from 2002 social accounting matrix. The model assumes segregated labour market-agriculture and non agriculture. The paper incorporates supply and demand side factors affecting Pakistan’s agriculture trade with special focus on rice trade. The results indicate that trade liberalization of rice and agriculture trade liberalization benefit to all households especially to farm households in rural area. The welfare and poverty indicators; equivalent variation and FGT indices, improve for majority of households. Pakistan as a whole is better off in each exercise as welfare improves and poverty reduces by all measures. However intensity of impact differs across five experiments. Last, long run analysis of rice trade liberalization is conducted assuming that land and capital are also mobile within agriculture and non agriculture economies, respectively. Global full liberalization of rice trade has more favorable effects in terms of welfare and poverty reduction in the long run.
Publication Year: 2007
Publication Date: 2007-02-18
Language: en
Type: article
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