Abstract: Numerical simulations are the core technique in forecasting the weather. The simulation calculates a weather forecast by use of an atmospheric model, which is implemented on a computer. The model itself can be partitioned into various complexity levels, and these can be associated with respective validation concepts. The proper design and implementation of the ‘dynamical core’ (i.e., partial differential equations and their numerical solver) is tested via comparisonComparison to idealized testTest case cases. In a subsequent development step, ‘parameterizationsParameterization’ are added, and then the simulation is considered a serious attempt to forecast the weather. The quality of the forecast is estimated by the retrospective comparisonComparison between simulation output and observed weather. In addition, a day-specific estimate of forecast uncertainty is derived via ‘ensemble forecasting’Ensemble forecasting on a routine basis.
Publication Year: 2019
Publication Date: 2019-01-01
Language: en
Type: book-chapter
Indexed In: ['crossref']
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