Title: Development of Return Period Stillwater Floodplains for the Northern Gulf of Mexico under the Coastal Dynamics of Sea Level Rise
Abstract: Rising seas increase the exposure, vulnerability, and thus the risk associated with hurricane storm surge flooding across the coastal floodplain. A methodology is applied to down select a suite of synthetic storms from recent flood insurance studies. The purpose is to force wind-wave and hurricane storm surge models of the northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) coast (Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle) that represent the future landscape and derive the 1 and 0.2% annual chance floodplain for present-day and four sea-level-rise (SLR) scenarios. Vast new regions become part of the 100-year floodplain by the end of the century. In Mississippi, the present-day 500-year return period event is likely to be the 100-year event under an SLR of 1.2 m. Throughout most of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, the present-day 500-year return period event becomes a 100-year event with just 0.5 m of SLR. Results indicate the need to apply a coastal dynamic modeling approach to plan and prepare for the effects of SLR across the NGOM and other low-gradient coastal landscapes.
Publication Year: 2019
Publication Date: 2019-03-01
Language: en
Type: article
Indexed In: ['crossref']
Access and Citation
Cited By Count: 35
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