Abstract: Recent debates about the future of jobs have mainly focused on whether or not they are at risk of automation (Arntz et. Al., 2016; Frey and Osborne, 2017; McKinsey, 2017; PwC, 2017). Studies have generally minimised the potential effects of automation on job creation, and have tended to ignore other relevant trends, including globalisation, population ageing, urbanisation, and the rise of the green economy. In this study we use a novel and comprehensive method to map out how employment is likely to change, and the implications for skills. We show both what we can expect, and where we should be uncertain. We also show likely dynamics in different parts of the labour market - from sectors like food and health to manufacturing. We find that education, health care, and wider public sector occupations are likely to grow. We also explain why some low-skilled jobs, in fields like construction and agriculture, are less likely to suffer poor labour market outcomes than has been assumed in the past.
Publication Year: 2017
Publication Date: 2017-09-28
Language: en
Type: article
Access and Citation
Cited By Count: 227
AI Researcher Chatbot
Get quick answers to your questions about the article from our AI researcher chatbot