Abstract: What can shrinking slack in the labor market or reports from businesses on their wage plans tell us about the trend for wages going forward? To address this question, I consider three models for forecasting wage growth. I take a broad view of “wages” by looking at employee compensation for private industry workers as measured by the ECI. Results suggest that movements in compensation growth—which depend on a complex combination of labor market slack, bargaining power, worker productivity, inflation , and myriad other factors—have been essentially unpredictable since the mid-1990s.
Publication Year: 2015
Publication Date: 2015-05-08
Language: en
Type: article
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