Title: What to Do When the Boom Is Over: Preparing for the Inevitable Is the Key. Options Include Adding New Products for the New Home-Buyer Market and Reducing Overhead. (Mortgage Lending)
Abstract: Sixty-eight percent of all American families own homes, the most ever, and a notable increase from 64% just ten years ago. And that market is being held aloft by a wealth of refinancings supported by low interest rates. Today, there are 70% more mortgage transactions than in an average home purchase-driven market and ten times more refinancings than in an average purchase-driven market. Borrowers are becoming very sophisticated, says Angelo Mozilo, chairman, CEO and president of the national mortgage lender Countrywide Credit Industries Inc. They're using the internet more and, even when they don't, they are coming to us very well informed. Now that they understand yield spread, they will lock in for a five-year or seven-year mortgage even though the 30-year is still the leader. the mortgage industry has been defying gravity, it also has been going through a big transition that the good times have made barely noticeable. Between 1985 and 1995, the third-party mortgage broker segment has grown from 10% to 50% of all home loans. mortgage brokerage business really captured the origination channels, says Doug Naidus, CEO of the national mortgage lender MortgageIT in New York. small cottage mom and pop industry has evolved into the dominant origination platform. business is in transition all the time, says Kevin Shannon, president of consumer real estate at Charlotte-based Bank of America. Since Sept. 11 [2001], we've seen three refi booms and we might be facing another. We're also seeing some real changes in how customers view mortgages and in how they view their homes as a financing source. Meanwhile, technology has made lending easier, consumers shrewder and competition fiercer, and outsourcing has become a true profit booster. No time for napping But there are a few hurdles up the road that are guaranteed to rock the mortgage business. There's the problem created by the growth in predatory lending laws in numerous states and localities. There's the coming overhaul of the 28-year-old Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act (RESPA). And then, inevitably, the end of the lending boom. After all, what goes up must come down. Knowledgeable observers may debate how long the current lending boom will last, but they all agree that eventually it will end. idea that there is no end to the current boom is ridiculous, says Mozilo. There is no way you can sustain this kind of growth. While these have been the salad days for the mortgage industry, anyone in the business for any length of time knows that it's bound to get tougher, says Shannon. I expect that challenge is most likely to come as we move into the middle of 2003 and beyond. Shannon and other observers believe the biggest problem will be overcapacity. They expect there'll be pressures on profit margins and a much more competitive environment. cutting overhead could mean the difference between winning and losing. Also, getting the details right could produce the payoff of a soft landing. Lenders will need to know just who their customers are and provide the products that they will buy. Growth from emerging markets The secondary markets determine the products that lenders can sell and Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the big investment banks have been leaning over backwards to create saleable products. We try to reinvent products to suit our customers, says BofA's Shannon. So we have to work harder with the secondary market to price and structure the products so that we can sell them to our customers. Until recently, mortgage lending in the United States revolved around a handful of plain-vanilla, 15- and 30-year fixed-rate as well as adjustable-rate offerings. But times are changing. the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage remains the basis for most home sales, dozens of new products have been developed to meet special needs. …
Publication Year: 2003
Publication Date: 2003-01-01
Language: en
Type: article
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