Title: Putting the Brakes on European Integration: Causes and Consequences
Abstract: Abstract:For Ukraine, the European integration process means a priori the modernization of the country, the implementation of reforms, and the deepening of democratic transformation. The Ukrainian government, however, has made the decision not to sign the Association Agreement - officially for the purpose of conducting a more detailed study and developing a complex of measures, which Ukraine must undertake in order to renew lost production capacity and regain the direction of trade and economic relations with Russia and other CIS countries. Russian-Ukrainian relations between August and October of this year may be characterized as a trade war, which is still ongoing. The controversy between the proponents of EU integration and the advocates of deeper relations with the Customs Union is taking place against a background of the recent record-breaking support by ordinary Ukrainians for the European trend in Ukraine policy. The current loss of Ukraine by the EU means that the crisis in the Eastern Partnership's policy towards the post-Soviet area is ongoing, and also demonstrates a lack of viable approaches and mechanisms of interaction and influence on the side of the EU toward processes within the given countries.The events unfolding around the possibility of signing the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU are full of dramatic and painful political discussions as well as geopolitical controversies. Practically on the eve of the Eastern Partnership Summit in Vilnius held on November 21, 2013, the Ukrainian government made the decision not to sign the Association Agreement.1 That decision was made with the purpose of conducting a more detailed study and the development of a complex of measures, which Ukraine must undertake in order to renew lost production capacity and regain the direction of trade and economic relations with Russia and other CIS countries. It was also made with a view towards developing the domestic market, up to an appropriate level that would ensure equal relations between Ukraine and other EU member states - which is a basic principle of international law and a foundation of the country's economic security. There are doubts as to whether this decisive step was in line with the constitution, as it was taken nontransparently and counter to the strategic trends of the country's development, as previously declared by the government.The government's decision caused mass rallies within the country, with over 100,000 people participating in protest meetings on November 24 alone. Commenting on the government's position, Foreign Minister Leonid Kozhara said that currently neither Ukraine nor the EU was ready to sign the agreement.2 According to Ukraine's State Statistics Service, in July-September 2013 when Russia applied new restrictive measures to Ukraine, in connection with Kiev's plans to sign the Association Agreement with the EU, exports dropped by 576 million US dollars, or 13.1 per cent.3 The fragile Ukrainian economy felt significant pressure. In turn the government refused to meet IMF requirements for obtaining a credit of 14.3 billion US dollars, as the requirements involve taking unpopular steps in social policy, which the president is also unwilling to take in the year before the presidential elections of 2015.The governmentalso proposed thatRussia take partin further negotiations between Ukraine and the EU in order to help settle a number of economic issues. Such proposals actually demonstrate a sharp turn in policy in regard to previous declarations of the Ukrainian ruling elite. Both the government and the president have declared that Ukraine would need up to 160 billion euros for the adjustment and support of the economy during the transition stage after signing the Association Agreement.4 At the same time, the following issues were not duly raised or included in the agenda during the Ukraine-EU negotiations of 2012 and 2013. And the unreasonableness of these numbers raises questions as to their conformity with reality. …
Publication Year: 2013
Publication Date: 2013-10-01
Language: en
Type: article
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