Title: Integrating Science and Management to Assess Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability to Climate Change
Abstract: We developed the ecosystem vulnerability assessment approach (EVAA) to help inform potential adaptation actions in response to a changing climate. EVAA combines multiple quantitative models and expert elicitation from scientists and land managers. In each of eight assessment areas, a panel of local experts determined potential vulnerability of forest ecosystems to climate change over the next century using EVAA. Vulnerability and uncertainty ratings for forest community types in each assessment area were developed. The vulnerability of individual forest types to climate change varied by region due to regional differences in how climate change is expected to affect system drivers, stressors, and dominant species and the capacity of a forest community to adapt. This assessment process is a straightforward and flexible approach to addressing the key components of vulnerability in a collaborative setting and can easily be applied to a range of forest ecosystems at local to regional scales. Management and Policy Implications Forest managers can use vulnerability assessments to help understand which species and ecosystems may be at greatest risk in a changing climate. Vulnerability assessments explain what systems are the most (and least) vulnerable, and, more important, why they are vulnerable. We developed the ecosystem vulnerability assessment approach (EVAA) for forest managers and scientists to collaboratively assess forest ecosystem vulnerability. We applied EVAA to eight regions in the Midwest and Northeast totaling 252 million acres. Although we have applied EVAA at the ecoregional scale, it is flexible enough to be used at larger or smaller scales, depending on the needs of managers. Results from assessments using EVAA have been successfully applied to forest management decisions across the Midwest and Northeast by nongovernmental, private, and government forest managers. How this information is applied depends on the specific goals and objectives of different places and ownerships.