Abstract: China’s son preference and discrimination against girls have resulted in male marriage squeeze.Based on the sex ratio of potential first marriage partners,we develop two new models by standardizing first marriage frequencies and eliminating the tempo effect.The two newly developed models and the two existing models,we predict China’s marriage squeeze during 2000-2100 with the four models.We find that these newly developed models based on sex ratio of potential first marriage partners,obtain almost the same results.During the 30 years from 2016 to 2046,the sex ratio of potential males to females is above 1.15,and remains 1.05 to 1.08 after 2060.From 2000 onward,China will be confronted with severe male surplus,annual surplus males number 1.2 to 1.5 million.After 2060,the number remains below 0.5 million.But if the high sex ratio at birth can not be controlled,the male marriage squeeze will be much more severe.
Publication Year: 2010
Publication Date: 2010-01-01
Language: en
Type: article
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Cited By Count: 1
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