Title: Middle and long term power load forecasting based on grey discrete Verhulst model’s theory
Abstract: This paper puts forward discrete grey Verhulst model to overcome the shortage that traditional GM (1, 1) model shows great error when it is used to forecast the S type sequence. This model is based on the theory of non-homogeneous index discrete grey model. It avoids the system error of the classical grey Verhulst forecasting models, in which the parameter estimation adopts discrete equations, but simulation and forecasting uses continuous equation. Then, the recursive solution representation of the discrete grey Verhulst model is presented. According to the characteristics of grey forecasting theory, equal-dimension grey number addition forecasting method is used to improve the precision of grey discrete Verhulst model. The example shows that the proposed method is correct and effective.
Publication Year: 2013
Publication Date: 2013-01-01
Language: en
Type: article
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Cited By Count: 3
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