Title: Empirical Analysis of Regional Financial Risks of Private Lending and Risk Pre-warming Methods——A Case Study on Zhejiang Province
Abstract: The regional financial risk of informal finance has been one of the main concerns of the financial authorities.And it is still an open question on how to measure and estimate it.This paper designs the scale risk index and the interest rate risk index of private lending as two indicators,and develops a risk pre-warning model based on the Probit and ARMA models by investigating 2083 cases of private lending in 11 cities of Zhejiang Province. Our empirical research finds that in 2008 the informal financial risk was mainly caused by the scale risk;in 2010-2011,it was caused by both scale and interest rate risks.This paper predicts that in 2013 the informal financial risk in Zhejiang Province will be mainly caused by scale risk.Therefore,an appropriate loose credit policy is helpful to reduce the informal financial risk in the second half of 2013.
Publication Year: 2013
Publication Date: 2013-01-01
Language: en
Type: article
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