Title: Risk Analysis of Earthquake in Sichuan Province
Abstract: Based on the data of historical earthquakes occurred in the Sichuan Province during the period of 1933-2001,this paper analyzes the risk of earthquake hazards in the Sichuan Province.The results calculated by using the methods of histogram,information diffusion and interior-outer set model are all similar.The probability of earthquakes exceeding 8.0 in magnitude is 0.03.This means that an earthquake of M≈8.0 would occur in the next 33~34 years.According to this result,the year in which an earthquake of M=7.9 occurred is 1973.Therefore,an earthquake of this risk level would occur in 2006 or 2007.There is an error of 1~2 years between the year of the earthquake occurred in Wenchuan,Sichuan province in 2008 and the year estimated.
Publication Year: 2009
Publication Date: 2009-01-01
Language: en
Type: article
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Cited By Count: 1
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