Title: Co-integration analysis on driving factors of agricultural land intensive utilization in Henan province
Abstract: This paper based on time-series data from1978 to 2012 of Henan Province,constructs the index system of agricultural land use intensity,calculates the levels of agricultural land intensive utilization by using BP ANN. On this basis,using co-integration theory,this paper analyzes the long-term equilibrium and the short-term fluctuation relationships between agricultural land intensive utilization and its driving factors. The research shows that,in the long term,per-capita net income of farmers,total value of farm output,policy-regulations have positive influences on agricultural land intensive utilization. When each of these driving factors increases by 1%,the agricultural land intensive utilization will respectively increase by 0. 241%,0. 230%,and 0. 176%. Moreover,the per-capita area has negative impacts on agricultural land intensive utilization,when the per-capita area increases by 1%,the agricultural land intensive utilization will respectively decrease by 0. 157%. In the short term,percapita net income of farmers,total value of farm output,per-capita area have the same influence direction but different influence sizes on agricultural land intensive utilization,however,the long-termeffects of policy-regulations on agricultural land intensive utilization is more evident.
Publication Year: 2014
Publication Date: 2014-01-01
Language: en
Type: article
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