Title: A New Nesting Prediction Model Based on GM(1,1)Used in Gas Production Prediction
Abstract: Because of the ignorance of the influence of gas well process measures and other factors,which are usually treated as abnormal interference point,the conventional production prediction always varies from the development strategy of gas reservoir.In this paper,combining GM(1,1)model with catastrophe mode,a new nested type GM(1,1)model was proposed.This new model can predict more accurately the production history in natural production model by regarding gas well process measures as disaster factors.The new model is applied to gas reservoir in West Sichuan gas production prediction of a single well production.The results were compared to the results of GM(1,1)and prediction model of production decline.The results showed that SLOPE and correlation coefficient of new model were more closed to 1than the others and regression intercept of the new was more closed to 0,which indicated that prediction precision of new model is more accurate and can reflect changes of the production of gas field development precisely.
Publication Year: 2015
Publication Date: 2015-01-01
Language: en
Type: article
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