Title: On the comprehensive emergency probability of chemical industry park based on the AHP-fuzzy evaluation method
Abstract: This paper is aimed at bringing about an analytic hierarchy process(AHP)-fuzzy model and its applications to the emergency probability assessment of chemical industry park. It is for the said research purpose that we have first of all established an evaluation index system for the assessment in accordance with the principle of science,system and maneuverability,which consists of three kinds of indexes at different grades,including the three first-grade evaluation indexes,eight second-grade evaluation indexes and thirty one third-grade evaluation indexes. In our categoration list,the firstgrade evaluation indexes should include the probability of management and monitoring before the accident,the promptness of the emergency response and manipulation of available human and material resources for the safety and saving control in the process of the accident,and the probability of rehabilitation after the actual accident.The second-grade evaluation indexes in our model are made up of the safety management and the professional training of the accident-fighting human resources,the logistic supporting readiness of the accident-fighting material resources,the monitoring and warning device,the cooperation potentiality of the commanding and the coordinating parties,the on-spot rescue promptness,and,finally,the comprehensive emergency-coping abilities. As to the third-grade evaluation indexes,they may include the rules for safety management,agencies and planning of emergency response,and still other about 30 evaluation indexes. Once all the weighing factors have been worked out according to the theory of AHP,it is necessary to establish a comprehensive model of emergency probability based on the method of fuzzy mathematics,which has been widely adopted for the time being.And,finally,we have managed to implement a case study based on a typical chemical industry park accident with such AHP-Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation technique. Thus,we have also made a detailed discussion of the goodresults we had appreciated by using the assessment method and the factors affecting the results. Thus,it can be concluded that some important indexes have been gained at thepoorgrade indexes in the assessment,including the theoretical and technical supports,public security and transport conditions,the medical treatment and rescue. And,at last,we have also proposed some useful suggestions on further improvement of the emergency probability of the chemical parks.
Publication Year: 2015
Publication Date: 2015-01-01
Language: en
Type: article
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Cited By Count: 3
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