Title: Flood forecast of Huaihe River based on TIGGE Ensemble Predictions
Abstract: An ensemble flood forecasting model,based on the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble(TIGGE) ensemble weather predictions was developed for flood forecast and early flood warning of Huaihe River,with the effects of flood diversion and retarding areas taken into account.The combination of numerical weather predictions(NWP) with flood forecasting system can increase the forecast lead time.A single NWP forecast,however,is insufficient as it involves considerable non-predictable uncertainties and can lead to a lot of false or missed warnings.Weather forecasts using ensemble predictions implemented on catchment hydrology can provide significantly improved flood forecast and early flood warning.In this paper,the upper reaches of the Huaihe River,upstream of the Lutaizi Hydrological Station,was taken as a test case.The hydrologic-hydraulic coupled model was applied for flood forecasting driven by ensemble weather predictions based on the TIGGE database(CMC 15members,ECWMF 51members,UKMO 24member,NCEP 15members) in the period of 2007 flood seasons.The Xinanjiang model was used for the hydrological rainfall-runoff modeling.One-dimension hydraulic model was applied for channel flood routing.A probabilistic discharge and flood inundation forecast was provided as the end product to study the potential benefits of using the TIGGE ensemble forecasts.The results demonstrated satisfactory flood forecasting with clear signals of probability of floods up to 72~120 hours in advance,and showed that TIGGE ensemble forecasts is a promising tool to early flood warning inundation,comparable with that based on rain gauge observation.
Publication Year: 2012
Publication Date: 2012-01-01
Language: en
Type: article
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Cited By Count: 4
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