Title: Study on predicting the epicenter of the M7.0 Lushan Earthquake
Abstract: A lot of summaries of strong earthquakes indicate that many kind of precursory seismicities appeared before strong earthquakes.We take these precursory seismicities as a key factor to predict the epicenter of future strong earthquake.The seismicity precursory image before the M7.0 Lushan Earthquake is that the Sichuan- Yunnan seismic regions are in active episode since 2008.The eastern belts of Sichuan- Yunnan along the east longitude 103 line were recent main seismicity belts.From the historical earthquakes studies we find the north Sichuan province is an original seismic belts with the magnitude of M6.5 and there were 4 pair of earthquakes and 680 years have passed since the 1327 Tianquan Earthquake.From 1500 to 2007,the east boundary seismic belts along the south- north seismic belts from Yingchuan to Tonghai in China,was a gap of M≥7.7 from Kangdin to Tianquan.The 2008 M8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake broke a fault about 300 km long.But the southern segment did not.The induced response earthquakes along the Lushan- Dayu occurred after several strong earthquakes in Sichuan and Yunnan Provinces.The month times anomaly of precursory earthquakes with a middle level happen in three periods that is April,July 2012 and February 2013 respectively.In Sichuan basin there was an M4.7 Santai Earthquake on 18February 2013.There will be strong aftershocks after the strong earthquake of the 2008 M8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake in Sichuan and nearby regions.The abnormal parameter value- b of seismicity appears.
Publication Year: 2014
Publication Date: 2014-01-01
Language: en
Type: article
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