Title: Exchange Rates,Trade Status and RMB Offshore Stock: An Empirical Study Based on Monthly Data from 1994 to 2012
Abstract:This paper estimates the scale of RMB offshore stock during 2004 to 2012 by use of a method of deduction of local demand and monthly data from 1992 to 2012,and then analyzes the impact of RMB exchange...This paper estimates the scale of RMB offshore stock during 2004 to 2012 by use of a method of deduction of local demand and monthly data from 1992 to 2012,and then analyzes the impact of RMB exchange rates and China's trade status on RMB offshore stock.The result indicates that the scale of RMB offshore stock has shown a steady upward trend,rising from 11.31 billion yuan in January 2004 to 22.57 billion yuan in December 2012,showing no excessive volatility.The cointegration analysis indicates that there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship among the RMB exchange rates,China's trade status and the RMB offshore stock.In the long run,1% appreciation of the RMB will cause the RMB offshore stock to increase by 0.9%;one percentage point increase in the ratio of China's exports to the US exports will cause the RMB offshore stock to increase by 0.99%.The impulse response and variance decomposition analysis shows that the shock of China's trade status has more important impact on the fluctuation of RMB offshore stock than the shock of exchange rates.Read More
Publication Year: 2014
Publication Date: 2014-01-01
Language: en
Type: article
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