Title: A New Idea for Increasing the Success Rate of Annual Scale Earthquake Prediction
Abstract:It is found that the success rate of annual scale earthquake prediction is less than 8% through a review of earthquake predictions in Gansu Province recent 20 years.The cause of the low success rate o...It is found that the success rate of annual scale earthquake prediction is less than 8% through a review of earthquake predictions in Gansu Province recent 20 years.The cause of the low success rate of annual scale earthquake prediction is analyzed and the importance of improving the success rate of annual scale earthquake prediction for mitigating the actual effect by disaster is discussed.Finally,a new idea to improve the success rate of annual scale earthquake prediction is proposed,including : based on the collecting,sorting and analyzing the seismic tectonic environment,geophysical field and seismic data of Gansu province and adjacent regions,studying their relevance with strong seismicity,and searching for distribution law of earthquake time,space,intensity;making an earthquake prediction model with a clear structure physical meaning,analyzing the long-term seismic risk and then carrying out annual earthquake tracking prediction.It is expected that the success rate of annual scale earthquake prediction will be increased by following this approach.Read More
Publication Year: 2012
Publication Date: 2012-01-01
Language: en
Type: article
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