Title: Analysis of Factors Influencing Price Fluctuations of Agricultural Products in the "Eleventh Five-Year" Period——Based on Cointegration Theory and VAR Model
Abstract: Using Cointegration theory and VAR model,along with qualitative analysis,the paper analyzes factors which influenced China's agricultural product prices in the Eleventh Five-Year period,and lays emphasis on the influence of international prices on domestic prices.It finds that international prices have increasing influence on domestic prices,but there is one-way causality between them,and the transmission from international prices to domestic prices has a delay.Meanwhile,the price fluctuations of agricultural production means can result in significant fluctuations of domestic agricultural product prices which show agricultural product prices in China are still determined by the agricultural production cost.In addition,the international oil price fluctuations can lead to international agricultural product price fluctuations,but there are obstacles to the transmission from international oil prices to China's oil prices and domestic agricultural product prices.Based on the conclusions,it puts forward suggestions to avoid the agricultural risk and stabilize China's agricultural product prices.
Publication Year: 2011
Publication Date: 2011-01-01
Language: en
Type: article
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