Title: Future Mortality in High Mortality Countries
Abstract: Abstract Chapter 6 examines the future of mortality in the 65 countries still experiencing high mortality in 2010, as defined by a cut-off of 40 deaths before the age of 5 per 1,000 live births. Mortality declines in several countries stagnated or reversed in the last two decades of the twentieth century owing mainly to HIV/AIDS. The forces underlying past mortality trends and affecting the future course of mortality are examined by reviewing the existing literature and reporting the results of a global survey and invited meeting, both involving mortality experts. The experts assessed the likelihood and weight of forces hypothesized to influence mortality. A statistical model is combined with these expert assessments to produce a set of mortality assumptions that are incorporated into the projections reported in this book. This chapter also addresses the limited availability of reliable data on age-specific mortality rates.
Publication Year: 2014
Publication Date: 2014-08-28
Language: en
Type: book-chapter
Indexed In: ['crossref']
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Cited By Count: 7
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