Title: Is a Sustainable Transportation System in China Possible? Estimations of Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions Based on the Partial Least Square Regression Method and Energy Substitution Model
Abstract: This study predicts energy consumption and carbon emissions of China’s transportation sector from macro and quantitative points of view. Based on historical analyses of energy consumption and on the structural change in transportation, an econometric model is developed using the partial least square regression method to predict future energy consumption and carbon emissions in the mid- and long-term. A substitution model depicts energy structure change, and scenario analyses are applied to reflect future uncertainty. Analyses demonstrate that energy consumption in the transportation sector will continue growing and that petroleum has replaced coal as the most important energy source. The current level of implementation for renewable energy systems can hardly compensate for the excessive dependence on fossil-fuel energy, and further energy structure adjustments are needed. To achieve sustainability, new technology breakthroughs and integrated policy approaches are necessary to reduce petroleum consumption and carbon emissions in transportation systems.
Publication Year: 2016
Publication Date: 2016-01-01
Language: en
Type: article
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