Title: Probabilistic Forecasts Using Climate Information for Water Management in Central Texas
Abstract: Although significant progress has been made in understanding the correlation between large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and regional streamflow anomalies, there is a general perception that seasonal climate forecasts are not used to the fullest extent possible for optimal water resources management. This paper describes the incorporation of climate predictions in ensembles of inflows to the Highland Lakes system in central Texas. Specifically, trends associated with three wide-scale teleconnection patterns—El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)—were considered as predictors, along with streamflow persistence. A Bayesian procedure is used to update ensemble probabilities, and various skill scores are reviewed for evaluating forecast performance. Ultimately, the ensembles are proposed for use in a stochastic reservoir system model to provide decision support to reservoir managers.
Publication Year: 2003
Publication Date: 2003-06-17
Language: en
Type: article
Indexed In: ['crossref']
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Cited By Count: 1
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