Abstract: This book is a thoughtful and readable presentation about how the hydrogen-based energy era will in the near future replace the fossil fuel energy era that began over a century ago. The author, who has written fifteen other non-fiction books dealing with the economic impact of a variety of scientific and technology changes, is a member of the faculty at the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania and is Chairman of the Washington-based Foundation on Economic Trends. Three propositions supply the framework of Rifkin's analysis of the coming major energy regime change on which this book is written. The first is that the fossil fuel energy era will undergo a phase-out process in the near future when the global fossil fuel production peak is reached and the resource bas of these fuels begins to decline. As this phase-out process unfolds, the Middle East countries will control the largest share of remaining fossil fuel reserves and will therefore exert increased influence upon both international policies and the global economy. Second, the energy source destined to replace fossil fuels is hydrogen, to be separated from water and consumed in fuel cells to create electricity on a decentralized, distributed energy bases. The worldwide production of electricity from hydrogen-powered fuel cells promises to become a low cost, abundant energy source which could last indefinitely and would result in the restructuring of many industries, including both transportation and electric power industries. Finally, this book demonstrates that the major challenge confronting the world and the energy industry involves the timely recognition of (a) the need to prepare for the orderly phase-out of the fossil fuel economy and (b) the need to establish the infrastructure and framework within which a hydrogen energy web can realize its potential for supporting a strong, expanding global economy with improved living standards worldwide, including those in third world countries. I. THE FOSSIL FUEL ERA PHASES OUT The enormity of the task of phasing out the fossil fuel era is well stated by Rifkin in these terms: Remove fossil fuels from the human equation and modern industrial civilization would cease to exist. We heat our homes and business from fossil fuels, run our factories with fossil fuels, power our transportation with fossil fuels, light our cities and communicate over distances with electricity derived from fossil fuels, grow our food with the help of fossil fuels, construct our buildings with materials made from fossil fuels, . . . store our surpluses with plastic containers and packaging made from fossil fuels, and produce our clothes and home appliances with petrochemicals. Virtually every aspect of modern existence is made from, powered with, of affected by fossil fuels (p. 64). Apart from the heavy dependence of today's civilization on fossil fuels, Rifkin points to three other factors that will impair society's ability to implement an orderly end to the fossil fuel era. These include (a) the dominant presence of centralized, hierarchical command and control business organizations within the energy industry, organizations which are generally less flexible in coping with new challenges, (b) the rise of Islamic fundamentalism in the Middle East and around the world and (c) the threat of increased warming of the Earth's climate from fossil fuel combustion. Each of these points receives a thoughtful review as the source of problems to be met in the fossil fuel phase-out process. Rifkin uses the metaphor to explain the issues on the timing or commencement of the fossil fuel phase-out process. Beginning with the initial discovery of crude oil in 1859 (by Col. Drake at Titusville, Pa.), the annual production of fossil fuels on a global basis has steadily increased for more the 140 consecutive years. This trend has been supported, of course, by the successful efforts to explore and discover new crude oil reserves and has created an upward production curve, which is the front half of the bell curve on global oil production. …
Publication Year: 2003
Publication Date: 2003-01-01
Language: en
Type: article
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