Abstract: (By Sergei Karaganov, dean of the School of World Economics and
International Affairs at Russia's National Research University
Higher School of Economics. Rossiiskaya gazeta, Jan. 12,
2016, p. 4. Complete text:) Last year was one of the best in the
history of Russian foreign policy. By 2013, it was obvious that a
conflict with the West was unavoidable, so early in 2014, Russia
threw the first punch, going from simmering rivalry to open
confrontation. Russia's relations with the West quickly soured.
Russia was hit with pretty heavy sanctions; attempts were made to
isolate Russia. Centripetal tendencies grew stronger in the Western
alliance. ... From the very start, the West entertained the ridiculous hope of
effecting regime change in Russia through a palace coup staged
by distraught, sanctions-hit oligarchs, or possibly even by
fomenting popular unrest. Naturally, that plan failed. Faced with
strong external pressure, the people and the elite rallied around
the Kremlin. Only a microscopic part broke away. More importantly,
by taking back the Crimea [see Current Digest,
Vol.66, No.12, pp.3-11] and supporting rebels in southeastern
Ukraine, Russia achieved its immediate goal, preventing any further
expansion of Western alliances to the territories Moscow regards as
vital to its security. Moscow has demonstrated that it will
doggedly defend them. This did not add to Russia's popularity, of
course, but it made other nations more fearful of Russia - and,
consequently, more respectful of its interests. Unfortunately, we
had to stop the expansion of Western alliances with a tough stance
instead of respectful dialogue. It turns out that is the only
language our partners understand. Now they are getting used to this
new reality and new rules of the game, which are now based on
respect for each other's interests. The Crimea is hardly ever
mentioned now. Only Washington and its most loyal allies in Europe
bring it up from time to time, but even they have toned down their
rhetoric. We may see renewed attempts to escalate the Ukraine
crisis, but Russia has certainly survived the first round ... of confrontation and pressure. On the whole, the Ukrainian
conflict was a political victory for Russia. We have laid the
foundation for healthier relations with Western partners based on
respect for each other's interests. But at this point, this is
merely an expectation. Due to mistakes and illusions of the past,
both sides still eye each other with suspicion. Both sides are
still playing with the idea of using the image of an external enemy
for internal consolidation. ... The past year made it very obvious, at least to me, that the
European security system as it emerged after the end of the cold
war - that is, essentially dominated by the West, its institutions
and political views - has utterly failed. This domination, which is
unacceptable to a larger part of the Russian elite, did not bring
peace and stability to the subcontinent. I believe that the old
system cannot be restored without a major overhaul, even if the
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe steps up its
work. I say this based in part on the experience of my one year
working on the OSCE Panel of Eminent Persons on European Security
as a Common Project. Despite all our efforts, nothing came out of
this work. ... The OSCE has the cold war in its DNA. It was never allowed to
become a useful tool for designing a future security system no
longer built around two blocs. As a result, the OSCE mainly played
a negative role in the first two decades after the cold war. While
creating the illusion of normalcy in Europe, it nevertheless
maintained a cold war atmosphere, with both sides regularly
accusing each other of violating principles that were actually
holdovers from another era. No wonder the first time the OSCE
proved useful was when the smoldering coals of the cold war (stoked
in part by the OSCE) sparked a new blaze in Ukraine. That's when
the OSCE came in handy, coordinating a peacekeeping mission.
Perhaps, this organization will survive for a little longer as a
platform for dialogue and as a crisis management center. But at
this point, our Western partners do not appear ready to overhaul
this organization, or to create an alternative institution to fill
the gaping and dangerous security vacuum that exists in Europe
today. ... In 2015, Russia took some important practical steps to reorient
its economy toward the East. Advanced development areas (ADAs) were
set up [in the Russian Far East], promising an influx of domestic
and foreign investments. Even though the overall volume of
international trade has fallen due to the economic downturn, low
fuel prices and ruble depreciation, the share of the Asian markets
has increased, and will probably continue to do so, making our
international trade more balanced and profitable. The agreement
between Russia and China to align the Silk Road Economic Belt and
the Eurasian Economic Union [see Current Digest,
Vol.
Publication Year: 2016
Publication Date: 2016-01-01
Language: en
Type: article
Indexed In: ['crossref']
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