Title: Mid-late Holocene climate, demography, and cultural dynamics in Iberia: A multi-proxy approach
Abstract: Despite increasing interest in the relationship between culture transformation and abrupt climate change, their complexities are poorly understood. The local impact of global environmental fluctuations depends on multiple factors, and their effects on societal collapse are often assumed rather than demonstrated. One of the major changes in west European later prehistory was the Copper to Bronze Age transition, contemporaneous with the 4.2 ky cal. BP event. This article offers a multi-dimensional insight into this historical process in the Iberian Peninsula from a multi-proxy and comparative perspective. Three study areas, representative of diverse ecological settings and historical trajectories, are compared. Using radiocarbon dates, 13C discrimination (Δ13C) values on C3 plants, and high-resolution palynological records as palaeoclimatic and palaeodemographic proxies, this study tracks the uneven signals of Holocene climate. The wettest Northwest region features the most stable trend lines, whereas the Southwest exhibits an abrupt decrease in its demographic signals c. 4500 cal. BP, which is then followed by a subsequent rise in the neighbouring Southeast. These lines of evidence suggest the possibility, never previously noted, of demic migration from the Southwest to the Southeast in the Early Bronze Age as a contributing factor to the cultural dynamics of southern Iberia.