Title: Predicting market prices of maize and guinea corn using Markov chain processes
Abstract: The extent of uncertainty caused by price instability in agriculture has made the industry risky. This study predicts the market price of maize and guinea corn in Michika Local Government Area of Adamawa State. Data was collected from primary sources using structured questionnaires from a random sample of eighty eight and ninety two of maize and guinea corn farmers, respectively. The results were subjected to analysis using Markov Chain model. Based on classification of the prices into three states, results indicate that 16% and 19% of maize and guinea corn farmers, respectively would sell at price state S1, which is less than N4000, 20% and 16% of maize and guinea corn farmers respectively would sell at price state S2 which is N4000N7999, while 64 and 65% of the farmers would sell at price State S3, which is at least N8000 in the long run (equilibrium). The study revealed that farmers would receive high price per 100 kg bag of maize and guinea corn in the long run. It is then recommended that in order to check excessive price, which may have a negative effect on farmers and the economy generally, a price stabilization program is proffered. Key Word: Price; Farmers; Fluctuation forecasting; Market
Publication Year: 2007
Publication Date: 2007-01-01
Language: en
Type: article
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