Title: UN projections assume fertility decline, mortality increase.
Abstract:This article summarizes the latest findings from the UN Population Division's 1998 review of World Population Estimates and Projections. The revisions reflect lower future population size and faster r...This article summarizes the latest findings from the UN Population Division's 1998 review of World Population Estimates and Projections. The revisions reflect lower future population size and faster rates of fertility and mortality decline. The medium variant of population projection for 2050 indicates 8.9 billion, which is 458 million lower than projected in 1996 and 924 million lower than projected in 1994. The changes are due to changes in developing countries. Africa's changes accounted for over 50% of the change. The UN medium projection assumes that the desire for fewer children and effective contraceptive practice will continue and that the availability of family planning services will increase. The revisions are also attributed to the widespread prevalence of AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa and greater chances for lower fertility in developing countries. AIDS mortality may decrease average life expectancy in 29 African countries by 7 years. The UN medium projection assumes a decline in fertility from 2.7 children/woman during 1995-2000 to 2.0 children/woman by 2050. The UN high variant is 10.7 billion by 2050; the low variant is 7.3 billion. It is concluded that efforts of national governments and international agencies have contributed to increased access to reproductive health services and subsequent fertility decline. Future declines will depend on accessibility issues. Despite declines, world population is still growing by 78 million annually. Even countries such as Botswana, with 25% of the population infected with HIV/AIDS, will double in size by 2050.Read More
Publication Year: 1998
Publication Date: 1998-12-01
Language: en
Type: article
Indexed In: ['pubmed']
Access and Citation
Cited By Count: 2
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