Abstract:In predicting what the demographic trends in the 1980s will be the greatest uncertainties are how many children will be born and where Americans will live. The projections made in this article are bas...In predicting what the demographic trends in the 1980s will be the greatest uncertainties are how many children will be born and where Americans will live. The projections made in this article are based on public sources and are made at the national level. It is likely that the population will grow slightly faster in the 1980s as the baby-boom generation passes through the childbearing stage. Census bureau population projections foresee a transition from present fertility levels to one of 3 different levels: 2.7 2.1 or 1.7. The rate today is 1.8. Low fertility may well be permanent. Life expectancy should continue to increase; in 1990 it could be 72 years for men and 81 years for women. Thus if fertility remains low and life expectancy increases the population will contain proportionately more old people in 1990 than it does today. Legal immigration will contribute about 20% of the annual population increase in the 1980s; illegal immigration of course is harder to assess and to plan for. The number of households will grow at twice the rate of the total population and non-family and single parent households are likely to increase. The growth rate in the labor force will decrease--from 2.3% in 1973 to 1.1% in 1985-90--but there will be 10 to 20 million more workers by 1990. Womens participation rates are likely to increase from the present 50% to 60.4%; so will the rates of older workers. Finally outmigration from cities especially in the Northeast and to the Sunbelt will probably continue.Read More
Publication Year: 1980
Publication Date: 1980-01-01
Language: en
Type: article
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