Title: A dynamic model system of household car ownership, trip generation and modal split: model development and simulation experiment
Abstract:A dynamic model of household car ownership and mode use is developed and applied to demand forecasting. The model system consists of three interrelated components: car ownership, mechanized trip gener...A dynamic model of household car ownership and mode use is developed and applied to demand forecasting. The model system consists of three interrelated components: car ownership, mechanized trip generation, and modal split. The level of household car ownership is represented as a function of household attributes and mobility measures from the preceding observation time point using an ordered response probit model. The trip generation model predicts the weekly number of trips made by household members using car or public transit, and the modal split model predicts the fraction of trips that are made by public transit. Household car ownership is a major determinant in the latter two model components. A simulation experiment is conducted using sample households from the dutch national mobility panel data set and applying the model system to predict household car ownership and mode use under different scenarios on future household income, employment, and drivers' licence holding. Policy implications of the simulation results are discussed (a).Read More
Publication Year: 1988
Publication Date: 1988-01-01
Language: en
Type: article
Access and Citation
Cited By Count: 3
AI Researcher Chatbot
Get quick answers to your questions about the article from our AI researcher chatbot