Title: Accidents at blackspots: Estimating the effectiveness of remedial treatment with special reference to the 'Regression-to-Mean' effect
Abstract: This paper proposes to show that the Bayesian approach is particularly well-suited to analyzing accident blackspot data, and providing information on which to judge the effectiveness of remedial treatment. This method has two main advantages: (1) it focuses the user's attention on the subjective nature of certain aspects of the problem (other methods tend to ignore this), and (2) it automatically takes account of the effect. It also answers a practical question for the traffic engineer, of whether the regression-to-mean effect is likely to be sufficiently large to be worth worrying about for sites in his area, by illustrating the problem with some typical calculations for sites in two local authority areas in the South of England.
Publication Year: 1981
Publication Date: 1981-10-01
Language: en
Type: article
Access and Citation
Cited By Count: 105
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